Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Bank of America Stadium
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes Denver Broncos 67% favourites. Line: DEN −2.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Carolina Panthers a 33.0% chance of winning and Denver Broncos 67.0%, with a predicted margin of DEN by 4.9. The betting market has it DEN 57%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers win | 33.0% | 42.8% |
| Denver Broncos win | 67.0% | 57.2% |
| Margin | DEN by 4.9 | DEN −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 21% |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 15% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Carolina Panthers by 1–3 | 11% |
| Carolina Panthers by 4–7 | 10% |
| Carolina Panthers by 8–14 | 8% |
| Carolina Panthers by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: DEN by 3 (8.4%), CAR by 3 (7.1%) and DEN by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Denver Broncos are 59.4% to cover the line (DEN −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Panthers | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 25.4 | 21.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 20.6 |
| Points difference | -15 | +7 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-4 | 6-2 |
Head-to-head record
Denver Broncos lead 6–2 in 8 meetings since 2004.
| P | Panthers | T | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| At Carolina Panthers | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Carolina Panthers win
- Denver Broncos 10–30 Carolina Panthers (2008 Week 15)
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- Denver Broncos 36–14 Carolina Panthers (2012 Week 10)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.0
- Carolina Panthers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-5
Head-to-head (last 8)
- Carolina Panthers 14–28 Denver Broncos2024 Week 8 · line DEN −13 (Panthers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 10–23 Carolina Panthers2022 Week 12 · line DEN −1 (Panthers covered)
- Denver Broncos 32–27 Carolina Panthers2020 Week 14 · line CAR −4 (Panthers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 20–21 Denver Broncos2016 Week 1 · line CAR −3 (Panthers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 10–24 Denver Broncos2015 Super Bowl · line CAR −4.5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 36–14 Carolina Panthers2012 Week 10 · line DEN −3.5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 10–30 Carolina Panthers2008 Week 15 · line CAR −7 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 17–20 Denver Broncos2004 Week 5 · line DEN −4 (Panthers covered)
Recent games
Carolina Panthers
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 8 · did not cover GB −3.519–27
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 7 · did not cover CAR −313–43
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 6 · covered CAR −325–14
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 4 · covered DET −4.532–26
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 3 · did not cover CAR −2.518–21
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 2 · covered CAR −2.534–3
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 1 · did not cover CHI −337–59
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Wild card round · covered LA −1031–34
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · covered TB −314–16
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 17 · did not cover SEA −6.510–27
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- Wv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 8 · covered DEN −1.528–24
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 7 · covered DEN −4.530–16
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 6 · covered SEA −2.517–14 (OT)
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 5 · covered DEN −3.523–17
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 4 · did not cover SF −314–24
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)