Articles
Questions FPL managers keep asking, answered from the data.
xG or FDR: which predicts FPL points better?
It depends on the job. To choose between players, an xG fixture rating beats FDR, because it knows how strong your own team is and FDR doesn’t. To pick a player’s best weeks, FDR did as well as every xG rating we built and better than a 10-gameweek one. Market-implied team goals beat both at both jobs.
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Three FPL decisions, three time horizons: captaincy, transfers and squad building
No. Captain the highest projection for this gameweek; judge a transfer by what it adds to your XI over the weeks you will keep him; build the squad as one constrained problem, where points per £m misleads. The best player next week can be the worst transfer.
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One captain or two? The mathematics of FPL captaincy
A second captaincy option helps, but the armband alone rarely pays for him. Alongside Haaland, Saka adds about 3.6 projected captain points over ten gameweeks; he is worth owning for his own points. Forcing in Bruno or Palmer as an extra option costs points.
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Should you always captain the top-projected player?
Yes, on average: the top-ranked captain scored most over four seasons. But the edge over the second choice is about a point a week, small enough that it lost in one season out of four.
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Should you always captain Haaland, even away at Arsenal?
Not every week. He is a strong default at home and when City are expected to score freely, but away at the strongest sides he blanked half the time, and always captaining him cost 129 points over four seasons.
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