Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Lincoln Financial Field
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Carolina Panthers won 25–14.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Carolina Panthers 25–14 Philadelphia Eagles
Closing line CAR −3, total 39.5 (stayed under). Carolina Panthers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Philadelphia Eagles a 59.0% chance of winning and Carolina Panthers 41.0%, with a predicted margin of PHI by 2.5. The betting market had it CAR 60%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles win | 59.0% | 40.0% |
| Carolina Panthers win | 41.0% | 60.0% |
| Margin | PHI by 2.5 | CAR −3 |
| Total points | – | 39.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Carolina Panthers by 15+ | 9% |
|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers by 8–14 | 10% |
| Carolina Panthers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Carolina Panthers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 1–3 | 13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 4–7 | 14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 8–14 | 14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: PHI by 3 (8.5%), CAR by 3 (7.8%) and PHI by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Carolina Panthers were 30.5% to cover the line (CAR −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Eagles | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 18.4 | 30.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.4 | 27.3 |
| Points difference | -20 | +12 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-4 | 2-2 |
Head-to-head record
Philadelphia Eagles lead 8–4 in 12 meetings since 2003. Philadelphia Eagles have won the last 2.
| P | Eagles | T | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| At Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Philadelphia Eagles win
- Philadelphia Eagles 38–10 Carolina Panthers (2009 Week 1)
- Biggest Carolina Panthers win
- Philadelphia Eagles 16–27 Carolina Panthers (2015 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.5
- Philadelphia Eagles against the spread (W-L-P)
- 7-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Carolina Panthers 16–22 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Week 14 · line PHI −14 (Eagles did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 21–18 Carolina Panthers2021 Week 5 · line CAR −2.5 (Eagles covered)
- Carolina Panthers 21–17 Philadelphia Eagles2018 Week 7 · line PHI −5 (Eagles did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 28–23 Carolina Panthers2017 Week 6 · line CAR −3 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 16–27 Carolina Panthers2015 Week 7 · line CAR −3 (Eagles did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 21–45 Philadelphia Eagles2014 Week 10 · line PHI −7 (Eagles covered)
- Carolina Panthers 30–22 Philadelphia Eagles2012 Week 12 · line CAR −3 (Eagles did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 38–10 Carolina Panthers2009 Week 1 · line PHI −1 (Eagles covered)
- Carolina Panthers 24–27 Philadelphia Eagles2006 Week 13 · line CAR −3 (Eagles covered)
- Carolina Panthers 8–30 Philadelphia Eagles2004 Week 6 · line PHI −10 (Eagles covered)
Recent games
Philadelphia Eagles
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 5 · covered JAX −7.517–19
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 4 · did not cover LA −3.520–24
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 3 · did not cover PHI −3.57–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 2 · did not cover PHI −724–20
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 1 · did not cover PHI −624–22
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Wild card round · did not cover PHI −619–23
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 18 · did not cover PHI −317–24
- W@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 17 · covered BUF −313–12
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 16 · covered PHI −729–18
- Wv Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 15 · covered PHI −12.531–0
Recent games
Carolina Panthers
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 4 · covered DET −4.532–26
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 3 · did not cover CAR −2.518–21
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 2 · covered CAR −2.534–3
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 1 · did not cover CHI −337–59
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Wild card round · covered LA −1031–34
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · covered TB −314–16
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 17 · did not cover SEA −6.510–27
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 16 · covered TB −323–20
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 15 · did not cover CAR −2.517–20
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 13 · covered LA −1031–28