Sinner J. v Alcaraz C.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Alcaraz C. leads Sinner J. 10–7 in 17 tour-level meetings; Sinner J. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.55fair odds 2.81
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Sinner J. (green), to the right Alcaraz C. (gold).
| Sinner J. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 64% | 56% | 56% |
| Best of 5 | 69% | 55% | 55% |
Their record
| Sinner J. | Alcaraz C. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 10 |
| Hard | 3 | 7 |
| Clay | 2 | 3 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 4 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 0 |
| 1000 | 2 | 5 |
| 500 | 1 | 1 |
| 250 | 1 | 0 |
| In finals | 4 | 5 |
Ratings now
| Sinner J. | Alcaraz C. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2318 (434) | 2225 (354) |
| Hard | 2272 (280) | 2129 (198) |
| Clay | 2129 (108) | 2171 (117) |
| Grass | 2060 (46) | 2105 (39) |
| Ranking at last match | 1 | 3 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (17)
| 12 Apr 2026 | Monte Carlo Masters 1000Final | Sinner J. (2) |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsFinal | Sinner J. (2) |
| 7 Sept 2025 | US Open Grand SlamFinal | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Final | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 13 Jul 2025 | Wimbledon Grand SlamFinal | Sinner J. (1) |
| 8 Jun 2025 | French Open Grand SlamFinal | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 18 May 2025 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Final | Alcaraz C. (3) |
| 2 Oct 2024 | China Open 500Final | Alcaraz C. (3) |
| 7 Jun 2024 | French Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Alcaraz C. (3) |
| 16 Mar 2024 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Semifinals | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 3 Oct 2023 | China Open 500Semifinals | Sinner J. (7) |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Miami Open 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (11) |
| 18 Mar 2023 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Semifinals | Alcaraz C. (2) |
| 8 Sept 2022 | US Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Alcaraz C. (4) |
| 31 Jul 2022 | Croatia Open 250Final | Sinner J. (10) |
| 3 Jul 2022 | Wimbledon Grand Slam4th Round | Sinner J. (13) |
| 3 Nov 2021 | BNP Paribas Masters 10002nd Round | Alcaraz C. (35) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.