Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · SoFi Stadium · division game
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Denver Broncos won 23–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Denver Broncos 23–17 Los Angeles Chargers
Closing line DEN −3.5, total 42.5 (stayed under). Denver Broncos covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Los Angeles Chargers a 38.4% chance of winning and Denver Broncos 61.6%, with a predicted margin of DEN by 3.3. The betting market had it DEN 62%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers win | 38.4% | 37.8% |
| Denver Broncos win | 61.6% | 62.3% |
| Margin | DEN by 3.3 | DEN −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 18% |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 4–7 | 11% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 8–14 | 9% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 15+ | 8% |
Most likely exact margins: DEN by 3 (8.5%), LAC by 3 (7.6%) and DEN by 7 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Denver Broncos were 46.3% to cover the line (DEN −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Chargers | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 16.8 | 18.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5 | 23.5 |
| Points difference | -39 | -20 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 0-3-1 | 2-2 |
Head-to-head record
Denver Broncos lead 28–21 in 49 meetings since 2002.
| P | Chargers | T | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 21 | 0 | 28 |
| At Los Angeles Chargers | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
- Biggest Los Angeles Chargers win
- San Diego Chargers 41–3 Denver Broncos (2007 Week 5)
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- San Diego Chargers 8–37 Denver Broncos (2003 Week 11)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.1
- Los Angeles Chargers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 22-22-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Los Angeles Chargers 3–19 Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · line DEN −14.5 (Chargers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 20–23 Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 3 · line LAC −2.5 (Chargers covered)
- Denver Broncos 27–34 Los Angeles Chargers2024 Week 16 · line LAC −3 (Chargers covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23–16 Denver Broncos2024 Week 6 · line LAC −3 (Chargers covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 9–16 Denver Broncos2023 Week 17 · line DEN −3.5 (Chargers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 24–7 Los Angeles Chargers2023 Week 14 · line LAC −3 (Chargers did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 28–31 Denver Broncos2022 Week 18 · line DEN −6 (Chargers covered)
- Denver Broncos 16–19 Los Angeles Chargers (OT)2022 Week 6 · line LAC −3.5 (Chargers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 13–34 Los Angeles Chargers2021 Week 17 · line LAC −8 (Chargers covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 13–28 Denver Broncos2021 Week 12 · line LAC −2.5 (Chargers did not cover)
Recent games
Los Angeles Chargers
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 4 · push SEA −723–30
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 3 · did not cover BUF −716–24
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 · did not cover LAC −6.514–26
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 · did not cover LAC −8.514–26
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Wild card round · did not cover NE −3.53–16
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · did not cover DEN −14.53–19
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 17 · did not cover LAC −1.516–20
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 16 · covered DAL −1.534–17
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 15 · covered KC −5.516–13
- Wv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 14 · covered PHI −1.522–19 (OT)
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 4 · did not cover SF −314–24
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 18 · covered DEN −14.519–3
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 17 · did not cover DEN −13.520–13
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 16 · did not cover DEN −3.520–34
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 15 · covered GB −1.534–26