Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Empower Field at Mile High
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Denver Broncos won 17–14 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Seattle Seahawks 14–17 Denver Broncos (OT)
Closing line SEA −2.5, total 40.5 (stayed under). Denver Broncos covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Denver Broncos a 47.9% chance of winning and Seattle Seahawks 52.1%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 0.6. The betting market had it SEA 56%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos win | 47.9% | 43.6% |
| Seattle Seahawks win | 52.1% | 56.4% |
| Margin | SEA by 0.6 | SEA −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 40.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 13% |
|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 12% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 13% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 13% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 13% |
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 11% |
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (8.4%), DEN by 3 (8.2%) and SEA by 7 (5.1%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks were 47.0% to cover the line (SEA −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Broncos | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Points per game | 19.4 | 26.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.2 | 21.0 |
| Points difference | -14 | +29 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2 | 1-2-2 |
Head-to-head record
Seattle Seahawks lead 5–3 in 8 meetings since 2002. Seattle Seahawks have won the last 2.
| P | Broncos | T | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| At Denver Broncos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- Denver Broncos 31–9 Seattle Seahawks (2002 Week 11)
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- Seattle Seahawks 43–8 Denver Broncos (2013 Super Bowl)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.4
- Denver Broncos against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-4-1
Head-to-head (last 8)
- Denver Broncos 20–26 Seattle Seahawks2024 Week 1 · line SEA −6.5 (Broncos covered)
- Denver Broncos 16–17 Seattle Seahawks2022 Week 1 · line DEN −6 (Broncos did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 24–27 Denver Broncos2018 Week 1 · line DEN −3 (Broncos push)
- Denver Broncos 20–26 Seattle Seahawks (OT)2014 Week 3 · line SEA −4 (Broncos did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 43–8 Denver Broncos2013 Super Bowl · line DEN −1.5 (Broncos did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 14–31 Denver Broncos2010 Week 2 · line DEN −3.5 (Broncos covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 23–20 Denver Broncos2006 Week 13 · line DEN −4.5 (Broncos did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 31–9 Seattle Seahawks2002 Week 11 · line DEN −5.5 (Broncos covered)
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 5 · covered DEN −3.523–17
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 4 · did not cover SF −314–24
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 18 · covered DEN −14.519–3
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 17 · did not cover DEN −13.520–13
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 16 · did not cover DEN −3.520–34
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 5 · did not cover SEA −329–32
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 4 · push SEA −730–23
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
- Wv San Francisco 49ers2025 Divisional round · covered SEA −6.541–6
- W@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 18 · covered SEA −2.513–3
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 17 · covered SEA −6.527–10