Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · Bank of America Stadium
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, Week 4 of the 2026 season: Carolina Panthers won 32–26.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Detroit Lions 26–32 Carolina Panthers
Closing line DET −4.5, total 52.5 (went over). Carolina Panthers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Carolina Panthers a 45.9% chance of winning and Detroit Lions 54.1%, with a predicted margin of DET by 1.1. The betting market had it DET 64%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers win | 45.9% | 36.3% |
| Detroit Lions win | 54.1% | 63.7% |
| Margin | DET by 1.1 | DET −4.5 |
| Total points | – | 52.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Detroit Lions by 15+ | 14% |
|---|---|
| Detroit Lions by 8–14 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 4–7 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Carolina Panthers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Carolina Panthers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Carolina Panthers by 8–14 | 11% |
| Carolina Panthers by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: DET by 3 (8.4%), CAR by 3 (8.1%) and DET by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Detroit Lions were 37.4% to cover the line (DET −4.5): to win by more than 4.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Panthers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 29.7 | 31.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 31.7 |
| Points difference | +6 | -2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-2 | 0-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Carolina Panthers lead 8–3 in 11 meetings since 2002.
| P | Panthers | T | Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
| At Carolina Panthers | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
- Biggest Carolina Panthers win
- Detroit Lions 7–31 Carolina Panthers (2002 Week 2)
- Biggest Detroit Lions win
- Carolina Panthers 24–42 Detroit Lions (2023 Week 5)
- Average points per meeting
- 47.0
- Carolina Panthers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Carolina Panthers 24–42 Detroit Lions2023 Week 5 · line DET −9.5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 23–37 Carolina Panthers2022 Week 16 · line DET −2.5 (Panthers covered)
- Detroit Lions 0–20 Carolina Panthers2020 Week 11 · line DET −3 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 19–20 Detroit Lions2018 Week 11 · line CAR −4 (Panthers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 27–24 Detroit Lions2017 Week 5 · line DET −2 (Panthers covered)
- Detroit Lions 7–24 Carolina Panthers2014 Week 2 · line CAR −1 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 35–49 Detroit Lions2011 Week 11 · line DET −7 (Panthers did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 22–31 Carolina Panthers2008 Week 11 · line CAR −14 (Panthers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 21–20 Detroit Lions2005 Week 6 · line Pick'em (Panthers covered)
- Detroit Lions 14–20 Carolina Panthers2003 Week 16 · line CAR −7.5 (Panthers did not cover)
Recent games
Carolina Panthers
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 3 · did not cover CAR −2.518–21
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 2 · covered CAR −2.534–3
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 1 · did not cover CHI −337–59
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Wild card round · covered LA −1031–34
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · covered TB −314–16
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 17 · did not cover SEA −6.510–27
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 16 · covered TB −323–20
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 15 · did not cover CAR −2.517–20
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 13 · covered LA −1031–28
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 12 · did not cover SF −7.59–20
Recent games
Detroit Lions
- Wv New York JetsWeek 3 · push DET −731–24
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 2 · did not cover BUF −5.531–41
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 · did not cover DET −731–30 (OT)
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 18 · covered CHI −3.519–16
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · did not cover DET −710–23
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DET −7.524–29
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 15 · did not cover LA −5.534–41
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 14 · covered DET −3.544–30
- Lv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 13 · did not cover DET −2.524–31
- Wv New York Giants2025 Week 12 · did not cover DET −1434–27 (OT)