Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Lambeau Field
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Green Bay Packers won 27–19.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Carolina Panthers 19–27 Green Bay Packers
Closing line GB −3.5, total 47.5 (stayed under). Green Bay Packers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Green Bay Packers a 64.2% chance of winning and Carolina Panthers 35.8%, with a predicted margin of GB by 4.1. The betting market had it GB 63%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers win | 64.2% | 63.1% |
| Carolina Panthers win | 35.8% | 36.9% |
| Margin | GB by 4.1 | GB −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Carolina Panthers by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers by 8–14 | 9% |
| Carolina Panthers by 4–7 | 11% |
| Carolina Panthers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Green Bay Packers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Green Bay Packers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Green Bay Packers by 8–14 | 15% |
| Green Bay Packers by 15+ | 20% |
Most likely exact margins: GB by 3 (8.5%), CAR by 3 (7.4%) and GB by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Green Bay Packers were 48.5% to cover the line (GB −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Packers | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Points per game | 20.6 | 26.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7 | 27.7 |
| Points difference | -1 | -7 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3-1 | 3-3 |
Head-to-head record
Green Bay Packers lead 8–5 in 13 meetings since 2002.
| P | Packers | T | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| At Green Bay Packers | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Green Bay Packers win
- Carolina Panthers 17–38 Green Bay Packers (2014 Week 7)
- Biggest Carolina Panthers win
- Green Bay Packers 29–37 Carolina Panthers (2015 Week 9)
- Average points per meeting
- 49.6
- Green Bay Packers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 4-8-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Carolina Panthers 16–13 Green Bay Packers2025 Week 9 · line GB −12.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 33–30 Carolina Panthers2023 Week 16 · line GB −3.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 16–24 Green Bay Packers2020 Week 15 · line GB −9.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 16–24 Green Bay Packers2019 Week 10 · line GB −5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 24–31 Carolina Panthers2017 Week 15 · line CAR −3 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 29–37 Carolina Panthers2015 Week 9 · line GB −2 (Packers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 17–38 Green Bay Packers2014 Week 7 · line GB −6.5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 30–23 Carolina Panthers2011 Week 2 · line GB −10.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 35–31 Green Bay Packers2008 Week 13 · line GB −3 (Packers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 17–31 Green Bay Packers2007 Week 11 · line GB −10 (Packers covered)
Recent games
Green Bay Packers
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 7 · covered DET −3.517–20
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 6 · covered DAL −1.523–13
- Wv Chicago BearsWeek 5 · covered CHI −1.531–7
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 4 · push GB −317–14
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 3 · did not cover GB −4.514–35
- W@ New York JetsWeek 2 · did not cover GB −3.520–17 (OT)
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 1 · did not cover MIN −1.522–39
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · did not cover GB −2.527–31
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 18 · did not cover MIN −12.53–16
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 17 · did not cover GB −2.524–41
Recent games
Carolina Panthers
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 7 · did not cover CAR −313–43
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 6 · covered CAR −325–14
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 4 · covered DET −4.532–26
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 3 · did not cover CAR −2.518–21
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 2 · covered CAR −2.534–3
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 1 · did not cover CHI −337–59
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Wild card round · covered LA −1031–34
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · covered TB −314–16
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 17 · did not cover SEA −6.510–27
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 16 · covered TB −323–20