Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · State Farm Stadium
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Denver Broncos won 30–16.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Denver Broncos 30–16 Arizona Cardinals
Closing line DEN −4.5, total 44.5 (went over). Denver Broncos covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Arizona Cardinals a 31.3% chance of winning and Denver Broncos 68.7%, with a predicted margin of DEN by 5.5. The betting market had it DEN 66%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals win | 31.3% | 33.6% |
| Denver Broncos win | 68.7% | 66.4% |
| Margin | DEN by 5.5 | DEN −4.5 |
| Total points | – | 44.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 23% |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 15% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 1–3 | 11% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 4–7 | 10% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 8–14 | 8% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: DEN by 3 (8.4%), ARI by 3 (7.0%) and DEN by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Denver Broncos were 49.6% to cover the line (DEN −4.5): to win by more than 4.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Cardinals | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.7 | 20.8 |
| Points difference | -52 | -11 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
Denver Broncos lead 5–1 in 6 meetings since 2002. Denver Broncos have won the last 3.
| P | Cardinals | T | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| At Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Arizona Cardinals win
- Denver Broncos 13–43 Arizona Cardinals (2010 Week 14)
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- Denver Broncos 45–10 Arizona Cardinals (2018 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.0
- Arizona Cardinals against the spread (W-L-P)
- 1-5
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Arizona Cardinals 15–24 Denver Broncos2022 Week 15 · line DEN −1.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 45–10 Arizona Cardinals2018 Week 7 · line DEN −1 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 20–41 Denver Broncos2014 Week 5 · line DEN −8 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 13–43 Arizona Cardinals2010 Week 14 · line DEN −4 (Cardinals covered)
- Denver Broncos 37–20 Arizona Cardinals2006 Week 15 · line DEN −2.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 7–37 Denver Broncos2002 Week 17 · line DEN −13.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
Recent games
Arizona Cardinals
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 6 · covered LA −12.518–16
- Lv Detroit LionsWeek 5 · did not cover DET −5.521–45
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 4 · did not cover ARI −2.524–36
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 3 · covered SF −7.530–36
- Lv Seattle SeahawksWeek 2 · did not cover SEA −3.57–31
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 1 · covered LAC −8.526–14
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · did not cover LA −14.520–37
- L@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 17 · did not cover CIN −714–37
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 16 · did not cover ATL −2.519–26
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 15 · did not cover HOU −10.520–40
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 6 · covered SEA −2.517–14 (OT)
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 5 · covered DEN −3.523–17
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 4 · did not cover SF −314–24
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 18 · covered DEN −14.519–3
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 17 · did not cover DEN −13.520–13