Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · Levi's Stadium
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, Week 4 of the 2026 season: San Francisco 49ers won 24–14.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Denver Broncos 14–24 San Francisco 49ers
Closing line SF −3, total 48.5 (stayed under). San Francisco 49ers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave San Francisco 49ers a 60.0% chance of winning and Denver Broncos 40.0%, with a predicted margin of SF by 2.8. The betting market had it SF 59%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers win | 60.0% | 59.3% |
| Denver Broncos win | 40.0% | 40.7% |
| Margin | SF by 2.8 | SF −3 |
| Total points | – | 48.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 10% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 12% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 1–3 | 13% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 4–7 | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 8–14 | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: SF by 3 (8.5%), DEN by 3 (7.7%) and SF by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve San Francisco 49ers were 45.0% to cover the line (SF −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| 49ers | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 32.7 | 20.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7 | 23.3 |
| Points difference | +48 | -10 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-1 | 2-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | 49ers | T | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest San Francisco 49ers win
- Denver Broncos 16–24 San Francisco 49ers (2010 Week 8)
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- San Francisco 49ers 17–42 Denver Broncos (2014 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 40.2
- San Francisco 49ers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- San Francisco 49ers 10–11 Denver Broncos2022 Week 3 · line SF −1 (49ers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 14–20 San Francisco 49ers2018 Week 14 · line DEN −3 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 17–42 Denver Broncos2014 Week 7 · line DEN −7 (49ers did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 16–24 San Francisco 49ers2010 Week 8 · line SF −2 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 26–23 Denver Broncos (OT)2006 Week 17 · line DEN −10.5 (49ers covered)
- Denver Broncos 24–14 San Francisco 49ers2002 Week 2 · line SF −3.5 (49ers did not cover)
Recent games
San Francisco 49ers
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 3 · did not cover SF −7.536–30
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 2 · covered SF −12.535–13
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 1 · covered LA −3.527–7
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · did not cover SEA −6.56–41
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Wild card round · covered PHI −623–19
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 18 · did not cover SEA −2.53–13
- Wv Chicago Bears2025 Week 17 · covered SF −3.542–38
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 16 · covered SF −4.548–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 15 · covered SF −12.537–24
- W@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 13 · covered SF −5.526–8
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 18 · covered DEN −14.519–3
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 17 · did not cover DEN −13.520–13
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 16 · did not cover DEN −3.520–34
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 15 · covered GB −1.534–26
- W@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 14 · did not cover DEN −8.524–17