Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Bank of America Stadium · division game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 43–13.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43–13 Carolina Panthers
Closing line CAR −3, total 44.5 (went over). Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Carolina Panthers a 67.6% chance of winning and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32.4%, with a predicted margin of CAR by 5.1. The betting market had it CAR 58%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers win | 67.6% | 58.3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win | 32.4% | 41.7% |
| Margin | CAR by 5.1 | CAR −3 |
| Total points | – | 44.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15+ | 6% |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8–14 | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4–7 | 10% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Carolina Panthers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Carolina Panthers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Carolina Panthers by 8–14 | 15% |
| Carolina Panthers by 15+ | 22% |
Most likely exact margins: CAR by 3 (8.4%), TB by 3 (7.1%) and CAR by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Carolina Panthers were 51.5% to cover the line (CAR −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Panthers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Points per game | 29.2 | 19.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 23.0 |
| Points difference | +23 | -19 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2 | 1-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
Carolina Panthers lead 25–23 in 48 meetings since 2002.
| P | Panthers | T | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 25 | 0 | 23 |
| At Carolina Panthers | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
- Biggest Carolina Panthers win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–48 Carolina Panthers (2011 Week 16)
- Biggest Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
- Carolina Panthers 14–48 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2024 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.7
- Carolina Panthers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 27-21
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Carolina Panthers 14–16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · line TB −3 (Panthers covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–23 Carolina Panthers2025 Week 16 · line TB −3 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 14–48 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024 Week 17 · line TB −9.5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 Carolina Panthers (OT)2024 Week 13 · line TB −6.5 (Panthers covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9–0 Carolina Panthers2023 Week 18 · line TB −5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Carolina Panthers 18–21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2023 Week 13 · line TB −4 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 24–30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2022 Week 17 · line TB −3.5 (Panthers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3–21 Carolina Panthers2022 Week 7 · line TB −13 (Panthers covered)
- Carolina Panthers 17–41 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2021 Week 18 · line TB −11 (Panthers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32–6 Carolina Panthers2021 Week 16 · line TB −11.5 (Panthers did not cover)
Recent games
Carolina Panthers
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 6 · covered CAR −325–14
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 4 · covered DET −4.532–26
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 3 · did not cover CAR −2.518–21
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 2 · covered CAR −2.534–3
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 1 · did not cover CHI −337–59
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Wild card round · covered LA −1031–34
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 18 · covered TB −314–16
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 17 · did not cover SEA −6.510–27
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 16 · covered TB −323–20
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 15 · did not cover CAR −2.517–20
Recent games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Lv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 6 · did not cover PIT −2.519–26 (OT)
- W@ Dallas CowboysWeek 5 · covered DAL −9.524–16
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 4 · push GB −314–17
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 3 · did not cover MIN −1.516–23
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 2 · did not cover TB −8.519–23
- L@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 1 · did not cover CIN −3.527–33
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 18 · did not cover TB −316–14
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 17 · did not cover TB −5.517–20
- L@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 16 · did not cover TB −320–23
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 15 · did not cover TB −628–29