Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Empower Field at Mile High · division game
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Denver Broncos won 28–24.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Kansas City Chiefs 24–28 Denver Broncos
Closing line DEN −1.5, total 41.5 (went over). Denver Broncos covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Denver Broncos a 62.8% chance of winning and Kansas City Chiefs 37.2%, with a predicted margin of DEN by 3.6. The betting market had it KC 51%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos win | 62.8% | 48.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs win | 37.2% | 51.1% |
| Margin | DEN by 3.6 | DEN −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Kansas City Chiefs by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs by 8–14 | 9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 4–7 | 11% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Denver Broncos by 1–3 | 13% |
| Denver Broncos by 4–7 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 8–14 | 14% |
| Denver Broncos by 15+ | 19% |
Most likely exact margins: DEN by 3 (8.5%), KC by 3 (7.5%) and DEN by 7 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Denver Broncos were 58.0% to cover the line (DEN −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 5-1 |
| Points per game | 20.6 | 23.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1 | 17.2 |
| Points difference | +3 | +40 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 5-2 | 3-3 |
Head-to-head record
Kansas City Chiefs lead 26–23 in 49 meetings since 2002.
| P | Broncos | T | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
| At Denver Broncos | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
- Biggest Denver Broncos win
- Kansas City Chiefs 0–38 Denver Broncos (2024 Week 18)
- Biggest Kansas City Chiefs win
- Denver Broncos 17–45 Kansas City Chiefs (2004 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.9
- Denver Broncos against the spread (W-L-P)
- 25-23-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Denver Broncos 10–31 Kansas City Chiefs2026 Week 1 · line KC −2.5 (Broncos did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 20–13 Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 17 · line DEN −13.5 (Broncos did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 19–22 Denver Broncos2025 Week 11 · line KC −3.5 (Broncos covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 0–38 Denver Broncos2024 Week 18 · line DEN −10.5 (Broncos covered)
- Denver Broncos 14–16 Kansas City Chiefs2024 Week 10 · line KC −7.5 (Broncos covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 9–24 Denver Broncos2023 Week 8 · line KC −7 (Broncos covered)
- Denver Broncos 8–19 Kansas City Chiefs2023 Week 6 · line KC −10.5 (Broncos did not cover)
- Denver Broncos 24–27 Kansas City Chiefs2022 Week 17 · line KC −13.5 (Broncos covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 34–28 Denver Broncos2022 Week 14 · line KC −8.5 (Broncos covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 28–24 Denver Broncos2021 Week 18 · line KC −11.5 (Broncos covered)
Recent games
Denver Broncos
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 7 · covered DEN −4.530–16
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 6 · covered SEA −2.517–14 (OT)
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 5 · covered DEN −3.523–17
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 4 · did not cover SF −314–24
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 3 · covered DEN −1.530–26
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 2 · covered DEN −2.520–13
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 1 · did not cover KC −2.510–31
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Conference championships · covered NE −3.57–10
- Wv Buffalo Bills2025 Divisional round · covered DEN −1.533–30 (OT)
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 18 · covered DEN −14.519–3
Recent games
Kansas City Chiefs
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 7 · did not cover SEA −33–20
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 6 · covered KC −7.522–6
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 4 · did not cover KC −4.530–27
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 3 · covered KC −1024–10
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 2 · did not cover KC −633–30 (OT)
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 1 · covered KC −2.531–10
- L@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · did not cover KC −3.512–14
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 17 · covered DEN −13.513–20
- L@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 16 · did not cover KC −3.59–26
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 15 · did not cover KC −5.513–16