Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Soldier Field
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Mon 9 Nov, 01:20 UK time. The model makes Chicago Bears 71% favourites. Line: CHI −6.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Prediction
The model gives Chicago Bears a 71.0% chance of winning and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29.0%, with a predicted margin of CHI by 6.2. The betting market has it CHI 71%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears win | 71.0% | 71.4% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win | 29.0% | 28.6% |
| Margin | CHI by 6.2 | CHI −6 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15+ | 5% |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8–14 | 7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4–7 | 10% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Chicago Bears by 1–3 | 13% |
| Chicago Bears by 4–7 | 14% |
| Chicago Bears by 8–14 | 16% |
| Chicago Bears by 15+ | 25% |
Most likely exact margins: CHI by 3 (8.3%), TB by 3 (6.7%) and CHI by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Chicago Bears are 46.1% to cover the line (CHI −6): to win by more than 6.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Bears | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Points per game | 26.8 | 22.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0 | 18.9 |
| Points difference | +54 | +27 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 6-2 | 3-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 7 wins each in 14 meetings since 2002. Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the last 2.
| P | Bears | T | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| At Chicago Bears | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Chicago Bears win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10–48 Chicago Bears (2018 Week 4)
- Biggest Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
- Chicago Bears 3–38 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2021 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 40.5
- Chicago Bears against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-8
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Chicago Bears 17–27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2023 Week 2 · line TB −2.5 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 3–38 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2021 Week 7 · line TB −12.5 (Bears did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–20 Chicago Bears2020 Week 5 · line TB −3.5 (Bears covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10–48 Chicago Bears2018 Week 4 · line CHI −3 (Bears covered)
- Chicago Bears 7–29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2017 Week 2 · line TB −7 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 10–36 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2016 Week 10 · line CHI −2.5 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 26–21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2015 Week 16 · line TB −3 (Bears covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13–21 Chicago Bears2014 Week 12 · line CHI −4 (Bears covered)
- Chicago Bears 24–18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2011 Week 7 · line CHI −1.5 (Bears covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–24 Chicago Bears (OT)2008 Week 3 · line CHI −3 (Bears did not cover)
Recent games
Chicago Bears
- W@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 8 · covered SEA −334–17
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 7 · covered CHI −330–24
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 6 · covered CHI −1.531–23
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 5 · did not cover CHI −1.57–31
- Wv New York JetsWeek 4 · covered CHI −3.523–12
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 3 · covered PHI −3.527–7
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 · did not cover CHI −4.53–9
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 1 · covered CHI −359–37
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Divisional round · covered LA −3.517–20 (OT)
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Wild card round · covered GB −2.531–27
Recent games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Wv Atlanta FalconsWeek 8 · covered TB −2.516–0
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 7 · covered CAR −343–13
- Lv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 6 · did not cover PIT −2.519–26 (OT)
- W@ Dallas CowboysWeek 5 · covered DAL −9.524–16
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 4 · push GB −314–17
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 3 · did not cover MIN −1.516–23
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 2 · did not cover TB −8.519–23
- L@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 1 · did not cover CIN −3.527–33
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 18 · did not cover TB −316–14
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 17 · did not cover TB −5.517–20