Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Raymond James Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Pittsburgh Steelers won 26–19 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (OT)
Closing line PIT −2.5, total 38.5 (went over). Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 45.7% chance of winning and Pittsburgh Steelers 54.3%, with a predicted margin of PIT by 1.2. The betting market had it PIT 57%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win | 45.7% | 42.8% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers win | 54.3% | 57.2% |
| Margin | PIT by 1.2 | PIT −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 38.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 15+ | 14% |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 8–14 | 13% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 4–7 | 13% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8–14 | 11% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: PIT by 3 (8.4%), TB by 3 (8.1%) and PIT by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Pittsburgh Steelers were 48.8% to cover the line (PIT −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Buccaneers | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 22.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.4 | 21.8 |
| Points difference | -12 | +2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-3-1 | 3-2 |
Head-to-head record
Pittsburgh Steelers lead 5–1 in 6 meetings since 2002. Pittsburgh Steelers have won the last 2.
| P | Buccaneers | T | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| At Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–24 Pittsburgh Steelers (2014 Week 4)
- Biggest Pittsburgh Steelers win
- Pittsburgh Steelers 38–13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2010 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 40.7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 1-5
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18–20 Pittsburgh Steelers2022 Week 6 · line TB −10 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 30–27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2018 Week 3 · line TB −1 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–24 Pittsburgh Steelers2014 Week 4 · line PIT −7.5 (Buccaneers covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 38–13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2010 Week 3 · line PIT −2 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3–20 Pittsburgh Steelers2006 Week 13 · line PIT −9 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 17–7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2002 Week 16 · line TB −4.5 (Buccaneers did not cover)
Recent games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- W@ Dallas CowboysWeek 5 · covered DAL −9.524–16
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 4 · push GB −314–17
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 3 · did not cover MIN −1.516–23
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 2 · did not cover TB −8.519–23
- L@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 1 · did not cover CIN −3.527–33
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 18 · did not cover TB −316–14
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 17 · did not cover TB −5.517–20
- L@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 16 · did not cover TB −320–23
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 15 · did not cover TB −628–29
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 14 · did not cover TB −7.520–24
Recent games
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 5 · covered PIT −334–22
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 4 · did not cover PIT −2.524–27
- Wv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 3 · covered CIN −3.530–27
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 2 · did not cover NE −4.53–20
- Wv Atlanta FalconsWeek 1 · covered PIT −6.520–13
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Wild card round · did not cover HOU −36–30
- Wv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 18 · covered BAL −4.526–24
- L@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 17 · did not cover PIT −4.56–13
- W@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 16 · covered DET −7.529–24
- Wv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 15 · covered PIT −328–15