Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Chicago Bears won 31–23.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Chicago Bears 31–23 Atlanta Falcons
Closing line CHI −1.5, total 51.5 (went over). Chicago Bears covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Atlanta Falcons a 49.1% chance of winning and Chicago Bears 50.9%, with a predicted margin of CHI by 0.3. The betting market had it CHI 52%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons win | 49.1% | 47.8% |
| Chicago Bears win | 50.9% | 52.2% |
| Margin | CHI by 0.3 | CHI −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 51.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Chicago Bears by 15+ | 13% |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears by 8–14 | 12% |
| Chicago Bears by 4–7 | 13% |
| Chicago Bears by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 13% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 13% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 12% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 12% |
Most likely exact margins: CHI by 3 (8.3%), ATL by 3 (8.3%) and CHI by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Chicago Bears were 48.4% to cover the line (CHI −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Falcons | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Points per game | 23.8 | 23.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 19.2 |
| Points difference | -3 | +23 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-3 | 3-2 |
Head-to-head record
Chicago Bears lead 6–4 in 10 meetings since 2002.
| P | Falcons | T | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| At Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- Chicago Bears 14–21 Atlanta Falcons (2009 Week 6)
- Biggest Chicago Bears win
- Atlanta Falcons 17–37 Chicago Bears (2023 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 40.6
- Atlanta Falcons against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-7-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Atlanta Falcons 17–37 Chicago Bears2023 Week 17 · line CHI −3 (Falcons did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 24–27 Atlanta Falcons2022 Week 11 · line ATL −3 (Falcons push)
- Chicago Bears 30–26 Atlanta Falcons2020 Week 3 · line ATL −2.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 23–17 Chicago Bears2017 Week 1 · line ATL −6.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 27–13 Atlanta Falcons2014 Week 6 · line ATL −3.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 12–30 Chicago Bears2011 Week 1 · line ATL −1 (Falcons did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 14–21 Atlanta Falcons2009 Week 6 · line ATL −4 (Falcons covered)
- Chicago Bears 20–22 Atlanta Falcons2008 Week 6 · line CHI −3 (Falcons covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 3–16 Chicago Bears2005 Week 15 · line CHI −3 (Falcons did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 14–13 Atlanta Falcons2002 Week 2 · line ATL −2.5 (Falcons did not cover)
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 5 · did not cover ATL −3.523–30 (OT)
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 4 · covered NO −1.545–24
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
- W@ Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 16 · covered ATL −2.526–19
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 15 · covered TB −629–28
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 14 · did not cover SEA −79–37
Recent games
Chicago Bears
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 5 · did not cover CHI −1.57–31
- Wv New York JetsWeek 4 · covered CHI −3.523–12
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 3 · covered PHI −3.527–7
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 · did not cover CHI −4.53–9
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 1 · covered CHI −359–37
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Divisional round · covered LA −3.517–20 (OT)
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Wild card round · covered GB −2.531–27
- Lv Detroit Lions2025 Week 18 · did not cover CHI −3.516–19
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 17 · did not cover SF −3.538–42
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 16 · covered CHI −1.522–16 (OT)