Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Lumen Field
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Chicago Bears won 34–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Chicago Bears 34–17 Seattle Seahawks
Closing line SEA −3, total 46.5 (went over). Chicago Bears covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Seattle Seahawks a 65.3% chance of winning and Chicago Bears 34.7%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 4.4. The betting market had it SEA 62%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks win | 65.3% | 61.6% |
| Chicago Bears win | 34.7% | 38.4% |
| Margin | SEA by 4.4 | SEA −3 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Chicago Bears by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears by 8–14 | 9% |
| Chicago Bears by 4–7 | 11% |
| Chicago Bears by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 13% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 15% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 20% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (8.5%), CHI by 3 (7.3%) and SEA by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks were 49.4% to cover the line (SEA −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Seahawks | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 25.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9 | 20.4 |
| Points difference | +43 | +37 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-3-2 | 5-2 |
Head-to-head record
Seattle Seahawks lead 7–6 in 13 meetings since 2003.
| P | Seahawks | T | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| At Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- Chicago Bears 0–26 Seattle Seahawks (2015 Week 3)
- Biggest Chicago Bears win
- Seattle Seahawks 6–37 Chicago Bears (2006 Week 4)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.4
- Seattle Seahawks against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-7
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Seattle Seahawks 6–3 Chicago Bears2024 Week 17 · line SEA −3.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 25–24 Seattle Seahawks2021 Week 16 · line SEA −7 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 17–24 Chicago Bears2018 Week 2 · line CHI −5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 0–26 Seattle Seahawks2015 Week 3 · line SEA −16.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 23–17 Chicago Bears (OT)2012 Week 13 · line CHI −3 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 38–14 Chicago Bears2011 Week 15 · line CHI −3.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 24–35 Chicago Bears2010 Divisional round · line CHI −10 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 23–20 Chicago Bears2010 Week 6 · line CHI −6 (Seahawks covered)
- Chicago Bears 25–19 Seattle Seahawks2009 Week 3 · line CHI −1 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 23–30 Seattle Seahawks2007 Week 11 · line SEA −6 (Seahawks covered)
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- Wv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 7 · covered SEA −320–3
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 6 · did not cover SEA −2.514–17 (OT)
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 5 · did not cover SEA −329–32
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 4 · push SEA −730–23
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
- Wv San Francisco 49ers2025 Divisional round · covered SEA −6.541–6
Recent games
Chicago Bears
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 7 · covered CHI −330–24
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 6 · covered CHI −1.531–23
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 5 · did not cover CHI −1.57–31
- Wv New York JetsWeek 4 · covered CHI −3.523–12
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 3 · covered PHI −3.527–7
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 · did not cover CHI −4.53–9
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 1 · covered CHI −359–37
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Divisional round · covered LA −3.517–20 (OT)
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Wild card round · covered GB −2.531–27
- Lv Detroit Lions2025 Week 18 · did not cover CHI −3.516–19