Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Raymond James Stadium · division game
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 16–0.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Atlanta Falcons 0–16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Closing line TB −2.5, total 42.5 (stayed under). Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 54.1% chance of winning and Atlanta Falcons 45.9%, with a predicted margin of TB by 1.1. The betting market had it TB 54%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win | 54.1% | 54.3% |
| Atlanta Falcons win | 45.9% | 45.7% |
| Margin | TB by 1.1 | TB −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 11% |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 11% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 12% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4–7 | 13% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8–14 | 13% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15+ | 14% |
Most likely exact margins: TB by 3 (8.4%), ATL by 3 (8.1%) and TB by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 48.6% to cover the line (TB −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Buccaneers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| Points per game | 23.1 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.6 | 24.7 |
| Points difference | +11 | -2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-4-1 | 3-4 |
Head-to-head record
Atlanta Falcons lead 25–23 in 48 meetings since 2002.
| P | Buccaneers | T | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 23 | 0 | 25 |
| At Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
- Biggest Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
- Atlanta Falcons 3–37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2007 Week 15)
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14–56 Atlanta Falcons (2014 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 47.7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 25-21-2
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Atlanta Falcons 29–28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 15 · line TB −6 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 1 · line TB −1.5 (Buccaneers covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 31–26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024 Week 8 · line ATL −1.5 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–36 Atlanta Falcons (OT)2024 Week 5 · line ATL −2.5 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–25 Atlanta Falcons2023 Week 14 · line ATL −1.5 (Buccaneers covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 16–13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2023 Week 7 · line TB −3 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17–30 Atlanta Falcons2022 Week 18 · line ATL −6 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 15–21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2022 Week 5 · line TB −10.5 (Buccaneers did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–17 Atlanta Falcons2021 Week 13 · line TB −11 (Buccaneers covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 25–48 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2021 Week 2 · line TB −13.5 (Buccaneers covered)
Recent games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 7 · covered CAR −343–13
- Lv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 6 · did not cover PIT −2.519–26 (OT)
- W@ Dallas CowboysWeek 5 · covered DAL −9.524–16
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 4 · push GB −314–17
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 3 · did not cover MIN −1.516–23
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 2 · did not cover TB −8.519–23
- L@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 1 · did not cover CIN −3.527–33
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 18 · did not cover TB −316–14
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 17 · did not cover TB −5.517–20
- L@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 16 · did not cover TB −320–23
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- Wv San Francisco 49ersWeek 7 · covered SF −2.529–20
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 6 · did not cover CHI −1.523–31
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 5 · did not cover ATL −3.523–30 (OT)
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 4 · covered NO −1.545–24
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
- W@ Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 16 · covered ATL −2.526–19