Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Lambeau Field · division game
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Green Bay Packers won 31–7.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Chicago Bears 7–31 Green Bay Packers
Closing line CHI −1.5, total 46.5 (stayed under). Green Bay Packers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Green Bay Packers a 42.9% chance of winning and Chicago Bears 57.1%, with a predicted margin of CHI by 2.0. The betting market had it CHI 53%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers win | 42.9% | 46.8% |
| Chicago Bears win | 57.1% | 53.3% |
| Margin | CHI by 2.0 | CHI −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Chicago Bears by 15+ | 16% |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears by 8–14 | 13% |
| Chicago Bears by 4–7 | 14% |
| Chicago Bears by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Green Bay Packers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Green Bay Packers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Green Bay Packers by 8–14 | 10% |
| Green Bay Packers by 15+ | 9% |
Most likely exact margins: CHI by 3 (8.5%), GB by 3 (7.9%) and CHI by 7 (5.3%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Chicago Bears were 53.4% to cover the line (CHI −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Packers | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 18.3 | 28.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 16.3 |
| Points difference | -32 | +47 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 0-3-1 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Green Bay Packers lead 36–14 in 50 meetings since 2002. Chicago Bears have won the last 2.
| P | Packers | T | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 50 | 36 | 0 | 14 |
| At Green Bay Packers | 24 | 17 | 0 | 7 |
- Biggest Green Bay Packers win
- Chicago Bears 14–55 Green Bay Packers (2014 Week 10)
- Biggest Chicago Bears win
- Green Bay Packers 7–35 Chicago Bears (2007 Week 16)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.4
- Green Bay Packers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 33-16-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Green Bay Packers 27–31 Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · line GB −2.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 16–22 Chicago Bears (OT)2025 Week 16 · line CHI −1.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 21–28 Green Bay Packers2025 Week 14 · line GB −6.5 (Packers covered)
- Chicago Bears 24–22 Green Bay Packers2024 Week 18 · line GB −10 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 20–19 Chicago Bears2024 Week 11 · line GB −6 (Packers did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 9–17 Green Bay Packers2023 Week 18 · line GB −2.5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 38–20 Chicago Bears2023 Week 1 · line CHI −1 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 28–19 Chicago Bears2022 Week 13 · line GB −4 (Packers covered)
- Chicago Bears 10–27 Green Bay Packers2022 Week 2 · line GB −10.5 (Packers covered)
- Chicago Bears 30–45 Green Bay Packers2021 Week 14 · line GB −11.5 (Packers covered)
Recent games
Green Bay Packers
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 4 · push GB −317–14
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 3 · did not cover GB −4.514–35
- W@ New York JetsWeek 2 · did not cover GB −3.520–17 (OT)
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 1 · did not cover MIN −1.522–39
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · did not cover GB −2.527–31
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 18 · did not cover MIN −12.53–16
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 17 · did not cover GB −2.524–41
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 16 · did not cover CHI −1.516–22 (OT)
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 15 · did not cover GB −1.526–34
- Wv Chicago Bears2025 Week 14 · covered GB −6.528–21
Recent games
Chicago Bears
- Wv New York JetsWeek 4 · covered CHI −3.523–12
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 3 · covered PHI −3.527–7
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 · did not cover CHI −4.53–9
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 1 · covered CHI −359–37
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Divisional round · covered LA −3.517–20 (OT)
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Wild card round · covered GB −2.531–27
- Lv Detroit Lions2025 Week 18 · did not cover CHI −3.516–19
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 17 · did not cover SF −3.538–42
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 16 · covered CHI −1.522–16 (OT)
- Wv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 15 · covered CHI −7.531–3