New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Soldier Field
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Chicago Bears won 30–24.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New England Patriots 24–30 Chicago Bears
Closing line CHI −3, total 50.5 (went over). Chicago Bears covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Chicago Bears a 49.6% chance of winning and New England Patriots 50.4%, with a predicted margin of level. The betting market had it CHI 58%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears win | 49.6% | 58.3% |
| New England Patriots win | 50.4% | 41.7% |
| Margin | level | CHI −3 |
| Total points | – | 50.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New England Patriots by 15+ | 12% |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots by 8–14 | 12% |
| New England Patriots by 4–7 | 13% |
| New England Patriots by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Chicago Bears by 1–3 | 13% |
| Chicago Bears by 4–7 | 13% |
| Chicago Bears by 8–14 | 12% |
| Chicago Bears by 15+ | 12% |
Most likely exact margins: NE by 3 (8.3%), CHI by 3 (8.3%) and NE by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Chicago Bears were 36.8% to cover the line (CHI −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Bears | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 22.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.8 | 18.8 |
| Points difference | +31 | +23 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-2 | 3-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
New England Patriots lead 6–1 in 7 meetings since 2002.
| P | Bears | T | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| At Chicago Bears | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- Biggest Chicago Bears win
- Chicago Bears 33–14 New England Patriots (2022 Week 7)
- Biggest New England Patriots win
- New England Patriots 36–7 Chicago Bears (2010 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 49.7
- Chicago Bears against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-4
Head-to-head (last 7)
- New England Patriots 19–3 Chicago Bears2024 Week 10 · line CHI −6.5 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 33–14 New England Patriots2022 Week 7 · line NE −9.5 (Bears covered)
- New England Patriots 38–31 Chicago Bears2018 Week 7 · line NE −1 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 23–51 New England Patriots2014 Week 8 · line NE −5.5 (Bears did not cover)
- New England Patriots 36–7 Chicago Bears2010 Week 14 · line NE −3 (Bears did not cover)
- Chicago Bears 13–17 New England Patriots2006 Week 12 · line NE −4.5 (Bears covered)
- New England Patriots 33–30 Chicago Bears2002 Week 10 · line NE −5 (Bears covered)
Recent games
Chicago Bears
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 6 · covered CHI −1.531–23
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 5 · did not cover CHI −1.57–31
- Wv New York JetsWeek 4 · covered CHI −3.523–12
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 3 · covered PHI −3.527–7
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 · did not cover CHI −4.53–9
- W@ Carolina PanthersWeek 1 · covered CHI −359–37
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Divisional round · covered LA −3.517–20 (OT)
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Wild card round · covered GB −2.531–27
- Lv Detroit Lions2025 Week 18 · did not cover CHI −3.516–19
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 17 · did not cover SF −3.538–42
Recent games
New England Patriots
- Wv New York JetsWeek 6 · did not cover NE −7.526–19
- Wv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 5 · covered NE −3.545–17
- W@ Buffalo BillsWeek 4 · covered BUF −729–26
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 · did not cover JAX −36–35
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 · covered NE −4.520–3
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 1 · push SEA −310–13
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Super Bowl · did not cover SEA −4.513–29
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Conference championships · did not cover NE −3.510–7
- Wv Houston Texans2025 Divisional round · covered NE −328–16
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Wild card round · covered NE −3.516–3