Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · AT&T Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 24–16.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–16 Dallas Cowboys
Closing line DAL −9.5, total 49.5 (stayed under). Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Dallas Cowboys a 65.6% chance of winning and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34.4%, with a predicted margin of DAL by 4.5. The betting market had it DAL 79%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys win | 65.6% | 79.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers win | 34.4% | 20.9% |
| Margin | DAL by 4.5 | DAL −9.5 |
| Total points | – | 49.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8–14 | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4–7 | 11% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 1–3 | 13% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 4–7 | 14% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 8–14 | 15% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 15+ | 21% |
Most likely exact margins: DAL by 3 (8.5%), TB by 3 (7.3%) and DAL by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Dallas Cowboys were 32.1% to cover the line (DAL −9.5): to win by more than 9.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Cowboys | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Points per game | 30.5 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 24.0 |
| Points difference | +10 | -20 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-1-1 | 0-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Dallas Cowboys lead 9–4 in 13 meetings since 2003. Dallas Cowboys have won the last 2.
| P | Cowboys | T | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| At Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Dallas Cowboys win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10–38 Dallas Cowboys (2006 Week 12)
- Biggest Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–3 Dallas Cowboys (2022 Week 1)
- Average points per meeting
- 38.4
- Dallas Cowboys against the spread (W-L-P)
- 7-5-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–26 Dallas Cowboys2024 Week 16 · line TB −4.5 (Cowboys covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 31–14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2022 Wild card round · line DAL −2.5 (Cowboys covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–3 Dallas Cowboys2022 Week 1 · line TB −2.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 29–31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2021 Week 1 · line TB −10 (Cowboys covered)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–27 Dallas Cowboys2018 Week 16 · line DAL −7 (Cowboys push)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–26 Dallas Cowboys2016 Week 15 · line DAL −7 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 6–10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2015 Week 10 · line DAL −1 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10–16 Dallas Cowboys2012 Week 3 · line DAL −7 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 31–15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2011 Week 15 · line DAL −7 (Cowboys covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 34–21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2009 Week 1 · line DAL −4.5 (Cowboys covered)
Recent games
Dallas Cowboys
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 4 · covered HOU −334–30
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 3 · push BAL −331–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 2 · covered DAL −3.537–20
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 1 · did not cover DAL −320–28
- L@ New York Giants2025 Week 18 · did not cover DAL −317–34
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 17 · did not cover DAL −8.530–23
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DAL −1.517–34
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 15 · did not cover DAL −5.526–34
- L@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 14 · did not cover DET −3.530–44
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 13 · covered KC −3.531–28
Recent games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 4 · push GB −314–17
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 3 · did not cover MIN −1.516–23
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 2 · did not cover TB −8.519–23
- L@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 1 · did not cover CIN −3.527–33
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 18 · did not cover TB −316–14
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 17 · did not cover TB −5.517–20
- L@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 16 · did not cover TB −320–23
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 15 · did not cover TB −628–29
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 14 · did not cover TB −7.520–24
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 13 · did not cover TB −4.520–17