Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Levi's Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 21:05 UK time. The model makes San Francisco 49ers 77% favourites. Line: SF −10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives San Francisco 49ers a 77.5% chance of winning and Las Vegas Raiders 22.5%, with a predicted margin of SF by 8.6. The betting market has it SF 80%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers win | 77.5% | 80.4% |
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 22.5% | 19.6% |
| Margin | SF by 8.6 | SF −10 |
| Total points | – | 52.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 8% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 1–3 | 12% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 4–7 | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 8–14 | 17% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 15+ | 31% |
Most likely exact margins: SF by 3 (7.9%), LV by 3 (5.9%) and SF by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve San Francisco 49ers are 39.9% to cover the line (SF −10): to win by more than 10.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| 49ers | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 28.1 | 27.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 28.8 |
| Points difference | +58 | -9 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-3 | 6-2 |
Head-to-head record
San Francisco 49ers lead 5–1 in 6 meetings since 2002. San Francisco 49ers have won the last 2.
| P | 49ers | T | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| At San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
- Biggest San Francisco 49ers win
- Oakland Raiders 3–34 San Francisco 49ers (2018 Week 9)
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- San Francisco 49ers 13–24 Oakland Raiders (2014 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.7
- San Francisco 49ers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- San Francisco 49ers 37–34 Las Vegas Raiders (OT)2022 Week 17 · line SF −10 (49ers did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 3–34 San Francisco 49ers2018 Week 9 · line LV −1.5 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 13–24 Oakland Raiders2014 Week 14 · line SF −8 (49ers did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 9–17 San Francisco 49ers2010 Week 6 · line SF −9 (49ers did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 20–34 San Francisco 49ers2006 Week 5 · line SF −3 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 23–20 Oakland Raiders (OT)2002 Week 9 · line LV −3 (49ers covered)
Recent games
San Francisco 49ers
- L@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 7 · did not cover SF −2.520–29
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 6 · did not cover SF −7.523–17
- W@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 5 · covered SEA −332–29
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 4 · covered SF −324–14
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 3 · did not cover SF −7.536–30
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 2 · covered SF −12.535–13
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 1 · covered LA −3.527–7
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · did not cover SEA −6.56–41
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Wild card round · covered PHI −623–19
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 18 · did not cover SEA −2.53–13
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- W@ New York JetsWeek 8 · covered NYJ −1.538–33
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 7 · did not cover LA −3.521–35
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 6 · covered BUF −5.530–33
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 5 · did not cover NE −3.517–45
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 4 · covered KC −4.527–30
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34