Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · Allegiant Stadium · division game
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 4 of the 2026 season: Kansas City Chiefs won 30–27.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 Las Vegas Raiders
Closing line KC −4.5, total 47.5 (went over). Las Vegas Raiders covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Las Vegas Raiders a 46.9% chance of winning and Kansas City Chiefs 53.1%, with a predicted margin of KC by 0.8. The betting market had it KC 66%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 46.9% | 33.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs win | 53.1% | 66.4% |
| Margin | KC by 0.8 | KC −4.5 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Kansas City Chiefs by 15+ | 14% |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs by 8–14 | 13% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 4–7 | 13% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 13% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 13% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 11% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: KC by 3 (8.4%), LV by 3 (8.2%) and KC by 7 (5.1%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Kansas City Chiefs were 36.6% to cover the line (KC −4.5): to win by more than 4.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Raiders | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Points per game | 29.3 | 29.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0 | 16.7 |
| Points difference | +34 | +38 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-0 | 2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Kansas City Chiefs lead 34–14 in 48 meetings since 2002.
| P | Raiders | T | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 14 | 0 | 34 |
| At Las Vegas Raiders | 24 | 6 | 0 | 18 |
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- Kansas City Chiefs 0–24 Oakland Raiders (2002 Week 17)
- Biggest Kansas City Chiefs win
- Las Vegas Raiders 9–48 Kansas City Chiefs (2021 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.0
- Las Vegas Raiders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 24-24
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Kansas City Chiefs 12–14 Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · line KC −3.5 (Raiders covered)
- Las Vegas Raiders 0–31 Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 7 · line KC −13.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17–19 Kansas City Chiefs2024 Week 13 · line KC −13.5 (Raiders covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 27–20 Las Vegas Raiders2024 Week 8 · line KC −9 (Raiders covered)
- Las Vegas Raiders 20–14 Kansas City Chiefs2023 Week 16 · line KC −11 (Raiders covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 31–17 Las Vegas Raiders2023 Week 12 · line KC −9 (Raiders did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 Las Vegas Raiders2022 Week 18 · line KC −9 (Raiders did not cover)
- Las Vegas Raiders 29–30 Kansas City Chiefs2022 Week 5 · line KC −7.5 (Raiders covered)
- Las Vegas Raiders 9–48 Kansas City Chiefs2021 Week 14 · line KC −10 (Raiders did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 41–14 Las Vegas Raiders2021 Week 10 · line KC −2.5 (Raiders did not cover)
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 16 · covered HOU −14.521–23
- L@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 15 · did not cover PHI −12.50–31
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 14 · covered DEN −8.517–24
- L@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 13 · did not cover LAC −1014–31
- Lv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 12 · did not cover LV −310–24
Recent games
Kansas City Chiefs
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 3 · covered KC −1024–10
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 2 · did not cover KC −633–30 (OT)
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 1 · covered KC −2.531–10
- L@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · did not cover KC −3.512–14
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 17 · covered DEN −13.513–20
- L@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 16 · did not cover KC −3.59–26
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 15 · did not cover KC −5.513–16
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 14 · did not cover KC −4.510–20
- L@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 13 · did not cover KC −3.528–31
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 12 · did not cover KC −3.523–20 (OT)