San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Lumen Field · division game
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 5 of the 2026 season: San Francisco 49ers won 32–29.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
San Francisco 49ers 32–29 Seattle Seahawks
Closing line SEA −3, total 46.5 (went over). San Francisco 49ers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Seattle Seahawks a 60.4% chance of winning and San Francisco 49ers 39.6%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 2.9. The betting market had it SEA 60%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks win | 60.4% | 60.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers win | 39.6% | 40.0% |
| Margin | SEA by 2.9 | SEA −3 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| San Francisco 49ers by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers by 8–14 | 10% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 4–7 | 11% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 13% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (8.5%), SF by 3 (7.7%) and SEA by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks were 45.3% to cover the line (SEA −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Seahawks | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 30.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 16.0 |
| Points difference | +32 | +58 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-1-2 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Seattle Seahawks lead 31–20 in 51 meetings since 2002. Seattle Seahawks have won the last 2.
| P | Seahawks | T | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 51 | 31 | 0 | 20 |
| At Seattle Seahawks | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 |
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- San Francisco 49ers 3–41 Seattle Seahawks (2005 Week 14)
- Biggest San Francisco 49ers win
- Seattle Seahawks 7–27 San Francisco 49ers (2022 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.2
- Seattle Seahawks against the spread (W-L-P)
- 29-21-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- San Francisco 49ers 6–41 Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · line SEA −6.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 13–3 San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 18 · line SEA −2.5 (Seahawks covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 17–13 Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 1 · line SF −2.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 20–17 San Francisco 49ers2024 Week 11 · line SF −6 (Seahawks covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 36–24 Seattle Seahawks2024 Week 6 · line SF −3.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 16–28 San Francisco 49ers2023 Week 14 · line SF −14.5 (Seahawks covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 31–13 Seattle Seahawks2023 Week 12 · line SF −7 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 23–41 San Francisco 49ers2022 Wild card round · line SF −10 (Seahawks did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 21–13 Seattle Seahawks2022 Week 15 · line SF −3 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 7–27 San Francisco 49ers2022 Week 2 · line SF −8.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 4 · push SEA −730–23
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
- Wv San Francisco 49ers2025 Divisional round · covered SEA −6.541–6
- W@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 18 · covered SEA −2.513–3
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 17 · covered SEA −6.527–10
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 16 · did not cover SEA −1.538–37 (OT)
Recent games
San Francisco 49ers
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 4 · covered SF −324–14
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 3 · did not cover SF −7.536–30
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 2 · covered SF −12.535–13
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 1 · covered LA −3.527–7
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · did not cover SEA −6.56–41
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Wild card round · covered PHI −623–19
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 18 · did not cover SEA −2.53–13
- Wv Chicago Bears2025 Week 17 · covered SF −3.542–38
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 16 · covered SF −4.548–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 15 · covered SF −12.537–24