Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Levi's Stadium
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers, Week 6 of the 2026 season: San Francisco 49ers won 23–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Washington Commanders 17–23 San Francisco 49ers
Closing line SF −7.5, total 51.5 (stayed under). Washington Commanders covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave San Francisco 49ers a 81.7% chance of winning and Washington Commanders 18.3%, with a predicted margin of SF by 10.4. The betting market had it SF 77%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers win | 81.7% | 77.1% |
| Washington Commanders win | 18.3% | 22.9% |
| Margin | SF by 10.4 | SF −7.5 |
| Total points | – | 51.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Washington Commanders by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Washington Commanders by 8–14 | 5% |
| Washington Commanders by 4–7 | 7% |
| Washington Commanders by 1–3 | 8% |
| Tie | <1% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 1–3 | 11% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 4–7 | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 8–14 | 17% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 15+ | 36% |
Most likely exact margins: SF by 3 (7.4%), SF by 7 (5.6%) and WAS by 3 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve San Francisco 49ers were 52.7% to cover the line (SF −7.5): to win by more than 7.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| 49ers | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 1-3-1 |
| Points per game | 30.8 | 23.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 29.8 |
| Points difference | +61 | -34 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Head-to-head record
San Francisco 49ers lead 8–4 in 12 meetings since 2002. San Francisco 49ers have won the last 2.
| P | 49ers | T | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| At San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest San Francisco 49ers win
- San Francisco 49ers 27–6 Washington Redskins (2013 Week 12)
- Biggest Washington Commanders win
- San Francisco 49ers 17–52 Washington Redskins (2005 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.7
- San Francisco 49ers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-5-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- San Francisco 49ers 27–10 Washington Commanders2023 Week 17 · line SF −14 (49ers covered)
- Washington Commanders 20–37 San Francisco 49ers2022 Week 16 · line SF −6.5 (49ers covered)
- Washington Football Team 23–15 San Francisco 49ers2020 Week 14 · line SF −3 (49ers did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 9–0 Washington Redskins2019 Week 7 · line SF −10 (49ers did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 24–26 Washington Redskins2017 Week 6 · line WAS −12 (49ers covered)
- Washington Redskins 13–17 San Francisco 49ers2014 Week 12 · line SF −9 (49ers did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 27–6 Washington Redskins2013 Week 12 · line SF −5.5 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 19–11 Washington Redskins2011 Week 9 · line SF −5 (49ers covered)
- Washington Redskins 24–27 San Francisco 49ers2008 Week 17 · line SF −1 (49ers covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 17–52 Washington Redskins2005 Week 7 · line WAS −11.5 (49ers did not cover)
Recent games
San Francisco 49ers
- W@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 5 · covered SEA −332–29
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 4 · covered SF −324–14
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 3 · did not cover SF −7.536–30
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 2 · covered SF −12.535–13
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 1 · covered LA −3.527–7
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · did not cover SEA −6.56–41
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Wild card round · covered PHI −623–19
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 18 · did not cover SEA −2.53–13
- Wv Chicago Bears2025 Week 17 · covered SF −3.542–38
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 16 · covered SF −4.548–27
Recent games
Washington Commanders
- Tv New York GiantsWeek 5 · did not cover WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Lv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 4 · did not cover IND −4.513–30
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 3 · covered SEA −8.533–31
- L@ Dallas CowboysWeek 2 · did not cover DAL −3.520–37
- L@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 1 · covered PHI −622–24
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 18 · covered PHI −324–17
- Lv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 17 · covered DAL −8.523–30
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 16 · did not cover PHI −718–29
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 15 · covered NYG −2.529–21
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 14 · did not cover WAS −1.50–31