Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Allegiant Stadium
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Los Angeles Rams won 35–21.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Los Angeles Rams 35–21 Las Vegas Raiders
Closing line LA −3.5, total 49.5 (went over). Los Angeles Rams covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Las Vegas Raiders a 43.6% chance of winning and Los Angeles Rams 56.4%, with a predicted margin of LA by 1.8. The betting market had it LA 61%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 43.6% | 39.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams win | 56.4% | 60.9% |
| Margin | LA by 1.8 | LA −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 49.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Los Angeles Rams by 15+ | 15% |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams by 8–14 | 13% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 4–7 | 14% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 12% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 12% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 11% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 10% |
Most likely exact margins: LA by 3 (8.5%), LV by 3 (8.0%) and LA by 7 (5.3%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Los Angeles Rams were 42.0% to cover the line (LA −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Raiders | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 23.0 |
| Points difference | +0 | -3 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 5-1 | 2-4 |
Head-to-head record
Los Angeles Rams lead 6–1 in 7 meetings since 2002. Los Angeles Rams have won the last 4.
| P | Raiders | T | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| At Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- St Louis Rams 14–16 Oakland Raiders (2010 Week 2)
- Biggest Los Angeles Rams win
- Oakland Raiders 0–52 St Louis Rams (2014 Week 13)
- Average points per meeting
- 36.7
- Las Vegas Raiders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 1-6
Head-to-head (last 7)
- Las Vegas Raiders 15–20 Los Angeles Rams2024 Week 7 · line LA −7 (Raiders covered)
- Las Vegas Raiders 16–17 Los Angeles Rams2022 Week 14 · line LV −6.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 33–13 Oakland Raiders2018 Week 1 · line LA −6 (Raiders did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 0–52 St Louis Rams2014 Week 13 · line LA −6.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 14–16 Oakland Raiders2010 Week 2 · line LV −3 (Raiders did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 20–0 Oakland Raiders2006 Week 15 · line LV −3 (Raiders did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 13–28 St Louis Rams2002 Week 6 · line LV −7 (Raiders did not cover)
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 6 · covered BUF −5.530–33
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 5 · did not cover NE −3.517–45
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 4 · covered KC −4.527–30
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 16 · covered HOU −14.521–23
- L@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 15 · did not cover PHI −12.50–31
Recent games
Los Angeles Rams
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 6 · did not cover LA −12.516–18
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 5 · did not cover LA −3.534–37 (OT)
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 4 · covered LA −3.524–20
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 3 · did not cover DEN −1.526–30
- Wv New York GiantsWeek 2 · covered LA −6.528–6
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 · did not cover LA −3.57–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Conference championships · did not cover SEA −2.527–31
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Divisional round · did not cover LA −3.520–17 (OT)
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Wild card round · did not cover LA −1034–31
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 18 · covered LA −14.537–20