Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · MetLife Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Las Vegas Raiders won 38–33.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Las Vegas Raiders 38–33 New York Jets
Closing line NYJ −1.5, total 46.5 (went over). Las Vegas Raiders covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New York Jets a 52.0% chance of winning and Las Vegas Raiders 48.0%, with a predicted margin of NYJ by 0.6. The betting market had it NYJ 53%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets win | 52.0% | 53.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 48.0% | 46.8% |
| Margin | NYJ by 0.6 | NYJ −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 11% |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 11% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 13% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New York Jets by 1–3 | 13% |
| New York Jets by 4–7 | 13% |
| New York Jets by 8–14 | 12% |
| New York Jets by 15+ | 13% |
Most likely exact margins: NYJ by 3 (8.4%), LV by 3 (8.2%) and NYJ by 7 (5.1%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New York Jets were 49.2% to cover the line (NYJ −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jets | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| Points per game | 19.6 | 26.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 | 28.1 |
| Points difference | -13 | -14 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-2-1 | 5-2 |
Head-to-head record
Las Vegas Raiders lead 8–7 in 15 meetings since 2002. Las Vegas Raiders have won the last 2.
| P | Jets | T | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| At New York Jets | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest New York Jets win
- New York Jets 38–0 Oakland Raiders (2009 Week 7)
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- New York Jets 20–45 Oakland Raiders (2017 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.3
- New York Jets against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-7-2
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New York Jets 12–16 Las Vegas Raiders2023 Week 10 · line NYJ −1 (Jets did not cover)
- Las Vegas Raiders 31–28 New York Jets2020 Week 13 · line LV −7.5 (Jets covered)
- Oakland Raiders 3–34 New York Jets2019 Week 12 · line LV −3.5 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 20–45 Oakland Raiders2017 Week 2 · line LV −14 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 20–34 Oakland Raiders2015 Week 8 · line NYJ −3 (Jets did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 14–19 New York Jets2014 Week 1 · line NYJ −6.5 (Jets did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 27–37 New York Jets2013 Week 14 · line NYJ −3 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 24–34 Oakland Raiders2011 Week 3 · line NYJ −1 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 38–0 Oakland Raiders2009 Week 7 · line NYJ −6 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 13–16 Oakland Raiders (OT)2008 Week 7 · line NYJ −3 (Jets did not cover)
Recent games
New York Jets
- Lv Miami DolphinsWeek 7 · did not cover NYJ −3.525–28
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 6 · covered NE −7.519–26
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 5 · covered NYJ −2.517–12
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 4 · did not cover CHI −3.512–23
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 3 · push DET −724–31
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 2 · covered GB −3.517–20 (OT)
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 1 · covered TEN −1.523–10
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 18 · did not cover BUF −12.58–35
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 17 · did not cover NE −12.510–42
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 16 · did not cover NO −6.56–29
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 7 · did not cover LA −3.521–35
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 6 · covered BUF −5.530–33
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 5 · did not cover NE −3.517–45
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 4 · covered KC −4.527–30
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 16 · covered HOU −14.521–23