San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Atlanta Falcons won 29–20.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
San Francisco 49ers 20–29 Atlanta Falcons
Closing line SF −2.5, total 49.5 (stayed under). Atlanta Falcons covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Atlanta Falcons a 30.9% chance of winning and San Francisco 49ers 69.1%, with a predicted margin of SF by 5.6. The betting market had it SF 56%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons win | 30.9% | 43.6% |
| San Francisco 49ers win | 69.1% | 56.4% |
| Margin | SF by 5.6 | SF −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 49.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| San Francisco 49ers by 15+ | 23% |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers by 8–14 | 16% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 4–7 | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 11% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 10% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 8% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: SF by 3 (8.4%), ATL by 3 (6.9%) and SF by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve San Francisco 49ers were 61.3% to cover the line (SF −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Falcons | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Points per game | 23.7 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 18.3 |
| Points difference | -11 | +67 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-4 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
Atlanta Falcons lead 7–5 in 12 meetings since 2004.
| P | Falcons | T | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| At Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- Atlanta Falcons 45–10 San Francisco 49ers (2009 Week 5)
- Biggest San Francisco 49ers win
- Atlanta Falcons 13–31 San Francisco 49ers (2021 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.8
- Atlanta Falcons against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-6
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Atlanta Falcons 10–20 San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 7 · line SF −1.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 14–28 Atlanta Falcons2022 Week 6 · line SF −3.5 (Falcons covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 13–31 San Francisco 49ers2021 Week 15 · line SF −9.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 29–22 San Francisco 49ers2019 Week 15 · line SF −10.5 (Falcons covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 13–41 Atlanta Falcons2016 Week 15 · line ATL −13.5 (Falcons covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 16–17 San Francisco 49ers2015 Week 9 · line ATL −9.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 24–34 San Francisco 49ers2013 Week 16 · line SF −15.5 (Falcons covered)
- San Francisco 49ers 28–24 Atlanta Falcons2012 Conference championships · line SF −3.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- San Francisco 49ers 14–16 Atlanta Falcons2010 Week 4 · line ATL −7 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 45–10 San Francisco 49ers2009 Week 5 · line SF −1 (Falcons covered)
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 6 · did not cover CHI −1.523–31
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 5 · did not cover ATL −3.523–30 (OT)
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 4 · covered NO −1.545–24
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
- W@ Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 16 · covered ATL −2.526–19
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 15 · covered TB −629–28
Recent games
San Francisco 49ers
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 6 · did not cover SF −7.523–17
- W@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 5 · covered SEA −332–29
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 4 · covered SF −324–14
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 3 · did not cover SF −7.536–30
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 2 · covered SF −12.535–13
- Wv Los Angeles RamsWeek 1 · covered LA −3.527–7
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Divisional round · did not cover SEA −6.56–41
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Wild card round · covered PHI −623–19
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 18 · did not cover SEA −2.53–13
- Wv Chicago Bears2025 Week 17 · covered SF −3.542–38