Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Gillette Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, Week 5 of the 2026 season: New England Patriots won 45–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Las Vegas Raiders 17–45 New England Patriots
Closing line NE −3.5, total 45.5 (went over). New England Patriots covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New England Patriots a 70.0% chance of winning and Las Vegas Raiders 30.0%, with a predicted margin of NE by 5.9. The betting market had it NE 62%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots win | 70.0% | 62.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 30.0% | 37.7% |
| Margin | NE by 5.9 | NE −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 45.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 5% |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 7% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 10% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New England Patriots by 1–3 | 13% |
| New England Patriots by 4–7 | 14% |
| New England Patriots by 8–14 | 16% |
| New England Patriots by 15+ | 24% |
Most likely exact margins: NE by 3 (8.4%), LV by 3 (6.8%) and NE by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New England Patriots were 53.7% to cover the line (NE −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Patriots | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 28.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3 | 21.0 |
| Points difference | -12 | +31 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-1-1 | 4-0 |
Head-to-head record
New England Patriots lead 6–4 in 10 meetings since 2002. Las Vegas Raiders have won the last 3.
| P | Patriots | T | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| At New England Patriots | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest New England Patriots win
- New England Patriots 33–8 Oakland Raiders (2017 Week 11)
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- Las Vegas Raiders 20–13 New England Patriots (2025 Week 1)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.9
- New England Patriots against the spread (W-L-P)
- 5-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Las Vegas Raiders 20–13 New England Patriots2025 Week 1 · line NE −2.5 (Patriots did not cover)
- New England Patriots 17–21 Las Vegas Raiders2023 Week 6 · line LV −3 (Patriots did not cover)
- New England Patriots 24–30 Las Vegas Raiders2022 Week 15 · line LV −1 (Patriots did not cover)
- Las Vegas Raiders 20–36 New England Patriots2020 Week 3 · line NE −7 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 33–8 Oakland Raiders2017 Week 11 · line NE −7 (Patriots covered)
- Oakland Raiders 9–16 New England Patriots2014 Week 3 · line NE −14 (Patriots did not cover)
- New England Patriots 31–19 Oakland Raiders2011 Week 4 · line NE −6 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 49–26 Oakland Raiders2008 Week 15 · line NE −6.5 (Patriots covered)
- Oakland Raiders 20–30 New England Patriots2005 Week 1 · line NE −7.5 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 20–27 Oakland Raiders2002 Week 11 · line LV −4.5 (Patriots did not cover)
Recent games
New England Patriots
- W@ Buffalo BillsWeek 4 · covered BUF −729–26
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 · did not cover JAX −36–35
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 · covered NE −4.520–3
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 1 · push SEA −310–13
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Super Bowl · did not cover SEA −4.513–29
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Conference championships · did not cover NE −3.510–7
- Wv Houston Texans2025 Divisional round · covered NE −328–16
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Wild card round · covered NE −3.516–3
- Wv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 18 · covered NE −1438–10
- W@ New York Jets2025 Week 17 · covered NE −12.542–10
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 4 · covered KC −4.527–30
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 16 · covered HOU −14.521–23
- L@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 15 · did not cover PHI −12.50–31
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 14 · covered DEN −8.517–24
- L@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 13 · did not cover LAC −1014–31