Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Allegiant Stadium
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Buffalo Bills won 33–30.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Buffalo Bills 33–30 Las Vegas Raiders
Closing line BUF −5.5, total 53.5 (went over). Las Vegas Raiders covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Las Vegas Raiders a 34.0% chance of winning and Buffalo Bills 66.0%, with a predicted margin of BUF by 4.6. The betting market had it BUF 69%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders win | 34.0% | 30.9% |
| Buffalo Bills win | 66.0% | 69.1% |
| Margin | BUF by 4.6 | BUF −5.5 |
| Total points | – | 53.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Buffalo Bills by 15+ | 21% |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills by 8–14 | 15% |
| Buffalo Bills by 4–7 | 14% |
| Buffalo Bills by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 1–3 | 11% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 4–7 | 11% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 8–14 | 8% |
| Las Vegas Raiders by 15+ | 7% |
Most likely exact margins: BUF by 3 (8.5%), LV by 3 (7.2%) and BUF by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Buffalo Bills were 45.2% to cover the line (BUF −5.5): to win by more than 5.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Raiders | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Points per game | 26.4 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 28.2 |
| Points difference | +3 | +23 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-1 | 4-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 5 wins each in 10 meetings since 2002. Buffalo Bills have won the last 3.
| P | Raiders | T | Bills | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| At Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Las Vegas Raiders win
- Buffalo Bills 17–38 Oakland Raiders (2005 Week 7)
- Biggest Buffalo Bills win
- Las Vegas Raiders 10–38 Buffalo Bills (2023 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 53.9
- Las Vegas Raiders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-4
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Las Vegas Raiders 10–38 Buffalo Bills2023 Week 2 · line BUF −7.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 30–23 Las Vegas Raiders2020 Week 4 · line BUF −3 (Raiders did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 14–34 Buffalo Bills2017 Week 8 · line BUF −2.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 24–38 Oakland Raiders2016 Week 13 · line LV −3 (Raiders covered)
- Buffalo Bills 24–26 Oakland Raiders2014 Week 16 · line BUF −7 (Raiders covered)
- Oakland Raiders 35–38 Buffalo Bills2011 Week 2 · line BUF −3.5 (Raiders covered)
- Oakland Raiders 23–24 Buffalo Bills2008 Week 3 · line BUF −10 (Raiders covered)
- Buffalo Bills 17–38 Oakland Raiders2005 Week 7 · line LV −3 (Raiders covered)
- Buffalo Bills 10–13 Oakland Raiders2004 Week 2 · line LV −3.5 (Raiders did not cover)
- Oakland Raiders 49–31 Buffalo Bills2002 Week 5 · line LV −3 (Raiders covered)
Recent games
Las Vegas Raiders
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 5 · did not cover NE −3.517–45
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 4 · covered KC −4.527–30
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 3 · covered NO −3.535–27
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 2 · covered LAC −6.526–14
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 1 · covered LV −327–13
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 18 · covered KC −3.514–12
- Lv New York Giants2025 Week 17 · did not cover NYG −310–34
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 16 · covered HOU −14.521–23
- L@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 15 · did not cover PHI −12.50–31
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 14 · covered DEN −8.517–24
Recent games
Buffalo Bills
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 5 · covered LA −3.537–34 (OT)
- Lv New England PatriotsWeek 4 · did not cover BUF −726–29
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 3 · covered BUF −724–16
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 2 · covered BUF −5.541–31
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 1 · covered BUF −1.536–31
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Divisional round · did not cover DEN −1.530–33 (OT)
- W@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Wild card round · covered JAX −1.527–24
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 18 · covered BUF −12.535–8
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 17 · did not cover BUF −312–13
- W@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 16 · did not cover BUF −10.523–20