Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Gillette Stadium
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 21:25 UK time. The model makes New England Patriots 65% favourites. Line: NE −3.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives New England Patriots a 64.7% chance of winning and Green Bay Packers 35.3%, with a predicted margin of NE by 4.2. The betting market has it NE 60%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots win | 64.7% | 60.4% |
| Green Bay Packers win | 35.3% | 39.6% |
| Margin | NE by 4.2 | NE −3 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Green Bay Packers by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers by 8–14 | 9% |
| Green Bay Packers by 4–7 | 11% |
| Green Bay Packers by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New England Patriots by 1–3 | 13% |
| New England Patriots by 4–7 | 14% |
| New England Patriots by 8–14 | 15% |
| New England Patriots by 15+ | 20% |
Most likely exact margins: NE by 3 (8.5%), GB by 3 (7.4%) and NE by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New England Patriots are 48.9% to cover the line (NE −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Patriots | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Points per game | 23.0 | 21.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 20.5 |
| Points difference | +22 | +7 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-4-1 | 4-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Patriots | T | Packers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At New England Patriots | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest New England Patriots win
- New England Patriots 35–0 Green Bay Packers (2006 Week 11)
- Biggest Green Bay Packers win
- Green Bay Packers 28–10 New England Patriots (2002 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.2
- New England Patriots against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- New England Patriots 24–27 Green Bay Packers (OT)2022 Week 4 · line GB −10 (Patriots covered)
- Green Bay Packers 17–31 New England Patriots2018 Week 9 · line NE −5 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 21–26 Green Bay Packers2014 Week 13 · line GB −3 (Patriots did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 27–31 New England Patriots2010 Week 15 · line NE −14 (Patriots did not cover)
- New England Patriots 35–0 Green Bay Packers2006 Week 11 · line NE −5.5 (Patriots covered)
- Green Bay Packers 28–10 New England Patriots2002 Week 6 · line NE −4.5 (Patriots did not cover)
Recent games
New England Patriots
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 8 · did not cover NE −724–19
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 7 · did not cover CHI −324–30
- Wv New York JetsWeek 6 · did not cover NE −7.526–19
- Wv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 5 · covered NE −3.545–17
- W@ Buffalo BillsWeek 4 · covered BUF −729–26
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 · did not cover JAX −36–35
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 · covered NE −4.520–3
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 1 · push SEA −310–13
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Super Bowl · did not cover SEA −4.513–29
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Conference championships · did not cover NE −3.510–7
Recent games
Green Bay Packers
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 8 · covered GB −3.527–19
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 7 · covered DET −3.517–20
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 6 · covered DAL −1.523–13
- Wv Chicago BearsWeek 5 · covered CHI −1.531–7
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 4 · push GB −317–14
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 3 · did not cover GB −4.514–35
- W@ New York JetsWeek 2 · did not cover GB −3.520–17 (OT)
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 1 · did not cover MIN −1.522–39
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · did not cover GB −2.527–31
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 18 · did not cover MIN −12.53–16