New York Jets at New England Patriots
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Gillette Stadium · division game
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Week 6 of the 2026 season: New England Patriots won 26–19.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New York Jets 19–26 New England Patriots
Closing line NE −7.5, total 43.5 (went over). New York Jets covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New England Patriots a 78.3% chance of winning and New York Jets 21.7%, with a predicted margin of NE by 8.9. The betting market had it NE 75%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots win | 78.3% | 75.1% |
| New York Jets win | 21.7% | 24.9% |
| Margin | NE by 8.9 | NE −7.5 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New York Jets by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| New York Jets by 8–14 | 6% |
| New York Jets by 4–7 | 8% |
| New York Jets by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New England Patriots by 1–3 | 12% |
| New England Patriots by 4–7 | 14% |
| New England Patriots by 8–14 | 17% |
| New England Patriots by 15+ | 31% |
Most likely exact margins: NE by 3 (7.8%), NYJ by 3 (5.7%) and NE by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New England Patriots were 48.3% to cover the line (NE −7.5): to win by more than 7.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Patriots | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 18.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 19.2 |
| Points difference | +16 | -3 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-1-1 | 3-1-1 |
Head-to-head record
New England Patriots lead 40–10 in 50 meetings since 2002. New England Patriots have won the last 3.
| P | Patriots | T | Jets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 50 | 40 | 0 | 10 |
| At New England Patriots | 26 | 21 | 0 | 5 |
- Biggest New England Patriots win
- New York Jets 3–45 New England Patriots (2010 Week 13)
- Biggest New York Jets win
- New England Patriots 3–24 New York Jets (2024 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.4
- New England Patriots against the spread (W-L-P)
- 29-19-2
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New England Patriots 42–10 New York Jets2025 Week 17 · line NE −12.5 (Patriots covered)
- New York Jets 14–27 New England Patriots2025 Week 11 · line NE −12.5 (Patriots covered)
- New York Jets 22–25 New England Patriots2024 Week 8 · line NYJ −7 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 3–24 New York Jets2024 Week 3 · line NYJ −6.5 (Patriots did not cover)
- New York Jets 17–3 New England Patriots2023 Week 18 · line NE −2.5 (Patriots did not cover)
- New England Patriots 15–10 New York Jets2023 Week 3 · line NE −2.5 (Patriots covered)
- New York Jets 3–10 New England Patriots2022 Week 11 · line NE −3.5 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 22–17 New York Jets2022 Week 8 · line NE −3 (Patriots covered)
- New York Jets 13–54 New England Patriots2021 Week 7 · line NE −7 (Patriots covered)
- New England Patriots 25–6 New York Jets2021 Week 2 · line NE −5.5 (Patriots covered)
Recent games
New England Patriots
- Wv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 5 · covered NE −3.545–17
- W@ Buffalo BillsWeek 4 · covered BUF −729–26
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 · did not cover JAX −36–35
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 · covered NE −4.520–3
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 1 · push SEA −310–13
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Super Bowl · did not cover SEA −4.513–29
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Conference championships · did not cover NE −3.510–7
- Wv Houston Texans2025 Divisional round · covered NE −328–16
- Wv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Wild card round · covered NE −3.516–3
- Wv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 18 · covered NE −1438–10
Recent games
New York Jets
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 5 · covered NYJ −2.517–12
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 4 · did not cover CHI −3.512–23
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 3 · push DET −724–31
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 2 · covered GB −3.517–20 (OT)
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 1 · covered TEN −1.523–10
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 18 · did not cover BUF −12.58–35
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 17 · did not cover NE −12.510–42
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 16 · did not cover NO −6.56–29
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 15 · did not cover JAX −13.520–48
- Lv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 14 · did not cover MIA −2.510–34