Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Ford Field · division game
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Detroit Lions won 20–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Green Bay Packers 17–20 Detroit Lions
Closing line DET −3.5, total 55.5 (stayed under). Green Bay Packers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Detroit Lions a 57.7% chance of winning and Green Bay Packers 42.3%, with a predicted margin of DET by 2.2. The betting market had it DET 62%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions win | 57.7% | 62.3% |
| Green Bay Packers win | 42.3% | 37.7% |
| Margin | DET by 2.2 | DET −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 55.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Green Bay Packers by 15+ | 9% |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers by 8–14 | 10% |
| Green Bay Packers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Green Bay Packers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Detroit Lions by 1–3 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 4–7 | 14% |
| Detroit Lions by 8–14 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 15+ | 16% |
Most likely exact margins: DET by 3 (8.5%), GB by 3 (7.9%) and DET by 7 (5.3%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Detroit Lions were 43.1% to cover the line (DET −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Lions | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Points per game | 32.8 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 20.8 |
| Points difference | +16 | +2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-3-1 | 2-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Green Bay Packers lead 32–16 in 48 meetings since 2002. Green Bay Packers have won the last 2.
| P | Lions | T | Packers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 16 | 0 | 32 |
| At Detroit Lions | 24 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
- Biggest Detroit Lions win
- Detroit Lions 31–0 Green Bay Packers (2018 Week 17)
- Biggest Green Bay Packers win
- Green Bay Packers 38–10 Detroit Lions (2004 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.1
- Detroit Lions against the spread (W-L-P)
- 23-24-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Green Bay Packers 31–24 Detroit Lions2025 Week 13 · line DET −2.5 (Lions did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 13–27 Green Bay Packers2025 Week 1 · line GB −1.5 (Lions did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 31–34 Detroit Lions2024 Week 14 · line DET −3 (Lions push)
- Detroit Lions 24–14 Green Bay Packers2024 Week 9 · line DET −2.5 (Lions covered)
- Green Bay Packers 29–22 Detroit Lions2023 Week 12 · line DET −8.5 (Lions did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 34–20 Green Bay Packers2023 Week 4 · line DET −2.5 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 20–16 Green Bay Packers2022 Week 18 · line GB −5.5 (Lions covered)
- Green Bay Packers 9–15 Detroit Lions2022 Week 9 · line GB −4 (Lions covered)
- Green Bay Packers 30–37 Detroit Lions2021 Week 18 · line GB −4 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 17–35 Green Bay Packers2021 Week 2 · line GB −11.5 (Lions did not cover)
Recent games
Detroit Lions
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 5 · covered DET −5.545–21
- L@ Carolina PanthersWeek 4 · did not cover DET −4.526–32
- Wv New York JetsWeek 3 · push DET −731–24
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 2 · did not cover BUF −5.531–41
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 · did not cover DET −731–30 (OT)
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 18 · covered CHI −3.519–16
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · did not cover DET −710–23
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DET −7.524–29
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 15 · did not cover LA −5.534–41
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 14 · covered DET −3.544–30
Recent games
Green Bay Packers
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 6 · covered DAL −1.523–13
- Wv Chicago BearsWeek 5 · covered CHI −1.531–7
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 4 · push GB −317–14
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 3 · did not cover GB −4.514–35
- W@ New York JetsWeek 2 · did not cover GB −3.520–17 (OT)
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 1 · did not cover MIN −1.522–39
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · did not cover GB −2.527–31
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 18 · did not cover MIN −12.53–16
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 17 · did not cover GB −2.524–41
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 16 · did not cover CHI −1.516–22 (OT)