New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Hard Rock Stadium · division game
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, Week 8 of the 2026 season: New England Patriots won 24–19.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New England Patriots 24–19 Miami Dolphins
Closing line NE −7, total 41.5 (went over). Miami Dolphins covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Miami Dolphins a 30.8% chance of winning and New England Patriots 69.2%, with a predicted margin of NE by 5.6. The betting market had it NE 74%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins win | 30.8% | 25.9% |
| New England Patriots win | 69.2% | 74.1% |
| Margin | NE by 5.6 | NE −7 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New England Patriots by 15+ | 23% |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots by 8–14 | 16% |
| New England Patriots by 4–7 | 14% |
| New England Patriots by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Miami Dolphins by 1–3 | 11% |
| Miami Dolphins by 4–7 | 10% |
| Miami Dolphins by 8–14 | 8% |
| Miami Dolphins by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: NE by 3 (8.4%), MIA by 3 (6.9%) and NE by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New England Patriots were 38.7% to cover the line (NE −7): to win by more than 7.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Dolphins | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 22.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.2 | 20.4 |
| Points difference | -59 | +17 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-3-1 | 3-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
New England Patriots lead 28–20 in 48 meetings since 2002. New England Patriots have won the last 2.
| P | Dolphins | T | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 20 | 0 | 28 |
| At Miami Dolphins | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
- Biggest Miami Dolphins win
- Miami Dolphins 38–13 New England Patriots (2008 Week 3)
- Biggest New England Patriots win
- New England Patriots 43–0 Miami Dolphins (2019 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.8
- Miami Dolphins against the spread (W-L-P)
- 24-23-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Miami Dolphins 10–38 New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · line NE −14 (Dolphins did not cover)
- New England Patriots 33–27 Miami Dolphins2025 Week 2 · line MIA −1.5 (Dolphins did not cover)
- New England Patriots 15–34 Miami Dolphins2024 Week 12 · line MIA −7.5 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 15–10 New England Patriots2024 Week 5 · line MIA −2 (Dolphins covered)
- New England Patriots 17–31 Miami Dolphins2023 Week 8 · line MIA −7.5 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 24–17 New England Patriots2023 Week 2 · line MIA −2 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 21–23 New England Patriots2022 Week 17 · line NE −3 (Dolphins covered)
- New England Patriots 7–20 Miami Dolphins2022 Week 1 · line MIA −3 (Dolphins covered)
- New England Patriots 24–33 Miami Dolphins2021 Week 18 · line NE −6 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 17–16 New England Patriots2021 Week 1 · line NE −3.5 (Dolphins covered)
Recent games
Miami Dolphins
- W@ New York JetsWeek 7 · covered NYJ −3.528–25
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 5 · push CIN −724–31
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 4 · covered MIN −1010–15
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 3 · did not cover KC −1010–24
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 2 · did not cover SF −12.513–35
- L@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 1 · did not cover LV −313–27
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · did not cover NE −1410–38
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 17 · covered TB −5.520–17
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 16 · did not cover CIN −3.521–45
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 15 · did not cover PIT −315–28
Recent games
New England Patriots
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 7 · did not cover CHI −324–30
- Wv New York JetsWeek 6 · did not cover NE −7.526–19
- Wv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 5 · covered NE −3.545–17
- W@ Buffalo BillsWeek 4 · covered BUF −729–26
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 · did not cover JAX −36–35
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 · covered NE −4.520–3
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 1 · push SEA −310–13
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Super Bowl · did not cover SEA −4.513–29
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Conference championships · did not cover NE −3.510–7
- Wv Houston Texans2025 Divisional round · covered NE −328–16