Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Lambeau Field
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Green Bay Packers won 23–13.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Dallas Cowboys 13–23 Green Bay Packers
Closing line DAL −1.5, total 53.5 (stayed under). Green Bay Packers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Green Bay Packers a 64.6% chance of winning and Dallas Cowboys 35.4%, with a predicted margin of GB by 4.2. The betting market had it GB 51%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers win | 64.6% | 51.1% |
| Dallas Cowboys win | 35.4% | 48.9% |
| Margin | GB by 4.2 | DAL −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 53.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Dallas Cowboys by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys by 8–14 | 9% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 4–7 | 11% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Green Bay Packers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Green Bay Packers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Green Bay Packers by 8–14 | 15% |
| Green Bay Packers by 15+ | 20% |
Most likely exact margins: GB by 3 (8.5%), DAL by 3 (7.4%) and GB by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Dallas Cowboys were 35.9% to cover the line (DAL −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Packers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Points per game | 20.8 | 27.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.4 | 27.2 |
| Points difference | -8 | +2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-3-1 | 2-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Green Bay Packers lead 11–3 with 1 tie in 15 meetings since 2004.
| P | Packers | T | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 |
| At Green Bay Packers | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Green Bay Packers win
- Dallas Cowboys 7–45 Green Bay Packers (2010 Week 9)
- Biggest Dallas Cowboys win
- Dallas Cowboys 30–16 Green Bay Packers (2016 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 56.9
- Green Bay Packers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 10-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Green Bay Packers 40–40 Dallas Cowboys (OT)2025 Week 4 · line GB −7 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 48–32 Dallas Cowboys2023 Wild card round · line DAL −7 (Packers covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 28–31 Green Bay Packers (OT)2022 Week 10 · line DAL −3.5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 34–24 Dallas Cowboys2019 Week 5 · line DAL −3.5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 35–31 Dallas Cowboys2017 Week 5 · line DAL −2.5 (Packers covered)
- Green Bay Packers 34–31 Dallas Cowboys2016 Divisional round · line DAL −5.5 (Packers covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 30–16 Green Bay Packers2016 Week 6 · line GB −5 (Packers did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 7–28 Green Bay Packers2015 Week 14 · line GB −6 (Packers covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 21–26 Green Bay Packers2014 Divisional round · line GB −5.5 (Packers did not cover)
- Green Bay Packers 37–36 Dallas Cowboys2013 Week 15 · line DAL −4 (Packers covered)
Recent games
Green Bay Packers
- Wv Chicago BearsWeek 5 · covered CHI −1.531–7
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 4 · push GB −317–14
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 3 · did not cover GB −4.514–35
- W@ New York JetsWeek 2 · did not cover GB −3.520–17 (OT)
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 1 · did not cover MIN −1.522–39
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Wild card round · did not cover GB −2.527–31
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 18 · did not cover MIN −12.53–16
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 17 · did not cover GB −2.524–41
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 16 · did not cover CHI −1.516–22 (OT)
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 15 · did not cover GB −1.526–34
Recent games
Dallas Cowboys
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 5 · did not cover DAL −9.516–24
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 4 · covered HOU −334–30
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 3 · push BAL −331–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 2 · covered DAL −3.537–20
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 1 · did not cover DAL −320–28
- L@ New York Giants2025 Week 18 · did not cover DAL −317–34
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 17 · did not cover DAL −8.530–23
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DAL −1.517–34
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 15 · did not cover DAL −5.526–34
- L@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 14 · did not cover DET −3.530–44