Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Hard Rock Stadium
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes Detroit Lions 69% favourites. Line: DET −7.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Miami Dolphins a 31.4% chance of winning and Detroit Lions 68.6%, with a predicted margin of DET by 5.4. The betting market has it DET 75%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins win | 31.4% | 25.2% |
| Detroit Lions win | 68.6% | 74.8% |
| Margin | DET by 5.4 | DET −7 |
| Total points | – | 50.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Detroit Lions by 15+ | 23% |
|---|---|
| Detroit Lions by 8–14 | 15% |
| Detroit Lions by 4–7 | 14% |
| Detroit Lions by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Miami Dolphins by 1–3 | 11% |
| Miami Dolphins by 4–7 | 10% |
| Miami Dolphins by 8–14 | 8% |
| Miami Dolphins by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: DET by 3 (8.4%), MIA by 3 (7.0%) and DET by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Detroit Lions are 38.1% to cover the line (DET −7): to win by more than 7.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Dolphins | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-6 | 5-2 |
| Points per game | 16.7 | 29.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 25.7 |
| Points difference | -64 | +23 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3-1 | 2-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Dolphins | T | Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Miami Dolphins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Miami Dolphins win
- Detroit Lions 21–49 Miami Dolphins (2002 Week 1)
- Biggest Detroit Lions win
- Detroit Lions 32–21 Miami Dolphins (2018 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.5
- Miami Dolphins against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Miami Dolphins 31–27 Detroit Lions2022 Week 8 · line MIA −3.5 (Dolphins covered)
- Detroit Lions 32–21 Miami Dolphins2018 Week 7 · line DET −3 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 16–20 Detroit Lions2014 Week 10 · line DET −3 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 34–27 Miami Dolphins2010 Week 16 · line MIA −3.5 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 27–10 Detroit Lions2006 Week 12 · line MIA −3 (Dolphins covered)
- Detroit Lions 21–49 Miami Dolphins2002 Week 1 · line MIA −9.5 (Dolphins covered)
Recent games
Miami Dolphins
- Lv New England PatriotsWeek 8 · covered NE −719–24
- W@ New York JetsWeek 7 · covered NYJ −3.528–25
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 5 · push CIN −724–31
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 4 · covered MIN −1010–15
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 3 · did not cover KC −1010–24
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 2 · did not cover SF −12.513–35
- L@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 1 · did not cover LV −313–27
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · did not cover NE −1410–38
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 17 · covered TB −5.520–17
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 16 · did not cover CIN −3.521–45
Recent games
Detroit Lions
- Wv Minnesota VikingsWeek 8 · covered DET −319–15
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 7 · did not cover DET −3.520–17
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 5 · covered DET −5.545–21
- L@ Carolina PanthersWeek 4 · did not cover DET −4.526–32
- Wv New York JetsWeek 3 · push DET −731–24
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 2 · did not cover BUF −5.531–41
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 · did not cover DET −731–30 (OT)
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 18 · covered CHI −3.519–16
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · did not cover DET −710–23
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DET −7.524–29