Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Hard Rock Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Cincinnati Bengals won 31–24.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Cincinnati Bengals 31–24 Miami Dolphins
Closing line CIN −7, total 44.5 (went over). The spread was a push.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Miami Dolphins a 40.8% chance of winning and Cincinnati Bengals 59.2%, with a predicted margin of CIN by 2.6. The betting market had it CIN 74%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins win | 40.8% | 25.6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals win | 59.2% | 74.4% |
| Margin | CIN by 2.6 | CIN −7 |
| Total points | – | 44.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cincinnati Bengals by 15+ | 17% |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals by 8–14 | 14% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 4–7 | 14% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Miami Dolphins by 1–3 | 12% |
| Miami Dolphins by 4–7 | 12% |
| Miami Dolphins by 8–14 | 10% |
| Miami Dolphins by 15+ | 9% |
Most likely exact margins: CIN by 3 (8.5%), MIA by 3 (7.8%) and CIN by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Cincinnati Bengals were 30.4% to cover the line (CIN −7): to win by more than 7.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Dolphins | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 11.5 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 21.3 |
| Points difference | -55 | +12 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-3 | 2-2 |
Head-to-head record
Cincinnati Bengals lead 6–5 in 11 meetings since 2004. Cincinnati Bengals have won the last 2.
| P | Dolphins | T | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| At Miami Dolphins | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Miami Dolphins win
- Cincinnati Bengals 7–19 Miami Dolphins (2020 Week 13)
- Biggest Cincinnati Bengals win
- Cincinnati Bengals 45–21 Miami Dolphins (2025 Week 16)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.6
- Miami Dolphins against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-5
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Cincinnati Bengals 45–21 Miami Dolphins2025 Week 16 · line CIN −3.5 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 15–27 Cincinnati Bengals2022 Week 4 · line CIN −4 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 7–19 Miami Dolphins2020 Week 13 · line MIA −10.5 (Dolphins covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35–38 Miami Dolphins (OT)2019 Week 16 · line CIN −1.5 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 17–27 Cincinnati Bengals2018 Week 5 · line CIN −6 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 7–22 Cincinnati Bengals2016 Week 4 · line CIN −7.5 (Dolphins did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20–22 Miami Dolphins (OT)2013 Week 9 · line CIN −3 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 17–13 Cincinnati Bengals2012 Week 5 · line CIN −3 (Dolphins covered)
- Miami Dolphins 22–14 Cincinnati Bengals2010 Week 8 · line MIA −1 (Dolphins covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 38–25 Miami Dolphins2007 Week 17 · line CIN −1 (Dolphins did not cover)
Recent games
Miami Dolphins
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 4 · covered MIN −1010–15
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 3 · did not cover KC −1010–24
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 2 · did not cover SF −12.513–35
- L@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 1 · did not cover LV −313–27
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · did not cover NE −1410–38
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 17 · covered TB −5.520–17
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 16 · did not cover CIN −3.521–45
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 15 · did not cover PIT −315–28
- W@ New York Jets2025 Week 14 · covered MIA −2.534–10
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 13 · did not cover MIA −5.521–17
Recent games
Cincinnati Bengals
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 4 · did not cover CIN −2.517–22
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 3 · did not cover CIN −3.527–30
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 2 · covered HOU −320–6
- Wv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 1 · covered CIN −3.533–27
- Lv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 18 · did not cover CIN −9.518–20
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 17 · covered CIN −737–14
- W@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 16 · covered CIN −3.545–21
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 15 · did not cover BAL −2.50–24
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 14 · covered BUF −634–39
- W@ Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 13 · covered BAL −732–14