Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · MetLife Stadium · division game
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Miami Dolphins won 28–25.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Miami Dolphins 28–25 New York Jets
Closing line NYJ −3.5, total 39.5 (went over). Miami Dolphins covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New York Jets a 60.4% chance of winning and Miami Dolphins 39.6%, with a predicted margin of NYJ by 2.9. The betting market had it NYJ 66%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets win | 60.4% | 66.4% |
| Miami Dolphins win | 39.6% | 33.6% |
| Margin | NYJ by 2.9 | NYJ −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 39.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Miami Dolphins by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins by 8–14 | 10% |
| Miami Dolphins by 4–7 | 11% |
| Miami Dolphins by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New York Jets by 1–3 | 13% |
| New York Jets by 4–7 | 14% |
| New York Jets by 8–14 | 14% |
| New York Jets by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: NYJ by 3 (8.5%), MIA by 3 (7.7%) and NYJ by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New York Jets were 45.3% to cover the line (NYJ −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jets | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 0-5 |
| Points per game | 18.7 | 14.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 26.4 |
| Points difference | -10 | -62 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-1-1 | 1-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Miami Dolphins lead 28–20 in 48 meetings since 2002. Miami Dolphins have won the last 2.
| P | Jets | T | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 20 | 0 | 28 |
| At New York Jets | 24 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
- Biggest New York Jets win
- New York Jets 40–13 Miami Dolphins (2007 Week 13)
- Biggest Miami Dolphins win
- New York Jets 0–30 Miami Dolphins (2023 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.9
- New York Jets against the spread (W-L-P)
- 23-23-2
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Miami Dolphins 34–10 New York Jets2025 Week 14 · line MIA −2.5 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 21–27 Miami Dolphins2025 Week 4 · line MIA −2.5 (Jets did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 20–32 New York Jets2024 Week 18 · line NYJ −1.5 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 26–32 Miami Dolphins (OT)2024 Week 14 · line MIA −6.5 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 0–30 Miami Dolphins2023 Week 15 · line MIA −7.5 (Jets did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 34–13 New York Jets2023 Week 12 · line MIA −9.5 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 6–11 Miami Dolphins2022 Week 18 · line MIA −3.5 (Jets did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 17–40 New York Jets2022 Week 5 · line MIA −3 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 24–31 Miami Dolphins2021 Week 15 · line MIA −10.5 (Jets covered)
- Miami Dolphins 24–17 New York Jets2021 Week 11 · line MIA −3.5 (Jets did not cover)
Recent games
New York Jets
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 6 · covered NE −7.519–26
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 5 · covered NYJ −2.517–12
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 4 · did not cover CHI −3.512–23
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 3 · push DET −724–31
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 2 · covered GB −3.517–20 (OT)
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 1 · covered TEN −1.523–10
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 18 · did not cover BUF −12.58–35
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 17 · did not cover NE −12.510–42
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 16 · did not cover NO −6.56–29
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 15 · did not cover JAX −13.520–48
Recent games
Miami Dolphins
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 5 · push CIN −724–31
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 4 · covered MIN −1010–15
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 3 · did not cover KC −1010–24
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 2 · did not cover SF −12.513–35
- L@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 1 · did not cover LV −313–27
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · did not cover NE −1410–38
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 17 · covered TB −5.520–17
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 16 · did not cover CIN −3.521–45
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 15 · did not cover PIT −315–28
- W@ New York Jets2025 Week 14 · covered MIA −2.534–10