Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Ford Field · division game
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Detroit Lions won 19–15.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Minnesota Vikings 15–19 Detroit Lions
Closing line DET −3, total 46.5 (stayed under). Detroit Lions covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Detroit Lions a 45.9% chance of winning and Minnesota Vikings 54.1%, with a predicted margin of MIN by 1.1. The betting market had it DET 60%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions win | 45.9% | 60.4% |
| Minnesota Vikings win | 54.1% | 39.6% |
| Margin | MIN by 1.1 | DET −3 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Minnesota Vikings by 15+ | 14% |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings by 8–14 | 13% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 4–7 | 13% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Detroit Lions by 1–3 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 4–7 | 12% |
| Detroit Lions by 8–14 | 11% |
| Detroit Lions by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: MIN by 3 (8.4%), DET by 3 (8.1%) and MIN by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Detroit Lions were 34.1% to cover the line (DET −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Lions | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 6-0 |
| Points per game | 30.7 | 20.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.5 | 12.3 |
| Points difference | +19 | +51 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-4-1 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
Minnesota Vikings lead 32–16 in 48 meetings since 2002. Minnesota Vikings have won the last 2.
| P | Lions | T | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 16 | 0 | 32 |
| At Detroit Lions | 24 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
- Biggest Detroit Lions win
- Minnesota Vikings 9–31 Detroit Lions (2024 Week 18)
- Biggest Minnesota Vikings win
- Detroit Lions 10–42 Minnesota Vikings (2007 Week 13)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.0
- Detroit Lions against the spread (W-L-P)
- 21-24-3
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Detroit Lions 10–23 Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · line DET −7 (Lions did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 27–24 Detroit Lions2025 Week 9 · line DET −9.5 (Lions did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 9–31 Detroit Lions2024 Week 18 · line DET −3 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 31–29 Minnesota Vikings2024 Week 7 · line MIN −1 (Lions covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 20–30 Detroit Lions2023 Week 18 · line DET −3.5 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 30–24 Minnesota Vikings2023 Week 16 · line DET −2.5 (Lions covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 23–34 Detroit Lions2022 Week 14 · line DET −2.5 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 24–28 Minnesota Vikings2022 Week 3 · line MIN −6.5 (Lions covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 27–29 Detroit Lions2021 Week 13 · line MIN −7 (Lions covered)
- Detroit Lions 17–19 Minnesota Vikings2021 Week 5 · line MIN −10 (Lions covered)
Recent games
Detroit Lions
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 7 · did not cover DET −3.520–17
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 5 · covered DET −5.545–21
- L@ Carolina PanthersWeek 4 · did not cover DET −4.526–32
- Wv New York JetsWeek 3 · push DET −731–24
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 2 · did not cover BUF −5.531–41
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 · did not cover DET −731–30 (OT)
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 18 · covered CHI −3.519–16
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · did not cover DET −710–23
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DET −7.524–29
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 15 · did not cover LA −5.534–41
Recent games
Minnesota Vikings
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 7 · did not cover MIN −6.516–10
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 5 · covered MIN −2.523–13
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 4 · did not cover MIN −1015–10
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 3 · covered MIN −1.523–16
- W@ Chicago BearsWeek 2 · covered CHI −4.59–3
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 1 · covered MIN −1.539–22
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 18 · covered MIN −12.516–3
- Wv Detroit Lions2025 Week 17 · covered DET −723–10
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 16 · covered MIN −2.516–13
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 15 · covered DAL −5.534–26