Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · U.S. Bank Stadium
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Week 4 of the 2026 season: Minnesota Vikings won 15–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Miami Dolphins 10–15 Minnesota Vikings
Closing line MIN −10, total 38.5 (stayed under). Miami Dolphins covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Minnesota Vikings a 79.6% chance of winning and Miami Dolphins 20.4%, with a predicted margin of MIN by 9.5. The betting market had it MIN 81%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings win | 79.6% | 80.8% |
| Miami Dolphins win | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Margin | MIN by 9.5 | MIN −10 |
| Total points | – | 38.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Miami Dolphins by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins by 8–14 | 5% |
| Miami Dolphins by 4–7 | 7% |
| Miami Dolphins by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 1–3 | 11% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 4–7 | 14% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 8–14 | 17% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 15+ | 33% |
Most likely exact margins: MIN by 3 (7.6%), MIN by 7 (5.6%) and MIA by 3 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Minnesota Vikings were 42.6% to cover the line (MIN −10): to win by more than 10.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Vikings | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Points per game | 23.7 | 12.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.7 | 28.7 |
| Points difference | +30 | -50 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-0 | 0-3 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002. Minnesota Vikings have won the last 2.
| P | Vikings | T | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Minnesota Vikings win
- Miami Dolphins 17–41 Minnesota Vikings (2018 Week 15)
- Biggest Miami Dolphins win
- Miami Dolphins 14–10 Minnesota Vikings (2010 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 45.8
- Minnesota Vikings against the spread (W-L-P)
- 4-2
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Minnesota Vikings 24–16 Miami Dolphins2022 Week 6 · line MIN −3 (Vikings covered)
- Miami Dolphins 17–41 Minnesota Vikings2018 Week 15 · line MIN −7.5 (Vikings covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 35–37 Miami Dolphins2014 Week 16 · line MIA −4.5 (Vikings covered)
- Miami Dolphins 14–10 Minnesota Vikings2010 Week 2 · line MIN −5.5 (Vikings did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 20–24 Miami Dolphins2006 Week 11 · line MIA −3 (Vikings did not cover)
- Miami Dolphins 17–20 Minnesota Vikings2002 Week 16 · line MIA −3 (Vikings covered)
Recent games
Minnesota Vikings
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 3 · covered MIN −1.523–16
- W@ Chicago BearsWeek 2 · covered CHI −4.59–3
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 1 · covered MIN −1.539–22
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 18 · covered MIN −12.516–3
- Wv Detroit Lions2025 Week 17 · covered DET −723–10
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 16 · covered MIN −2.516–13
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 15 · covered DAL −5.534–26
- Wv Washington Commanders2025 Week 14 · covered WAS −1.531–0
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 13 · did not cover SEA −12.50–26
- L@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 12 · did not cover GB −6.56–23
Recent games
Miami Dolphins
- Lv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 3 · did not cover KC −1010–24
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 2 · did not cover SF −12.513–35
- L@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 1 · did not cover LV −313–27
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 18 · did not cover NE −1410–38
- Wv Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 17 · covered TB −5.520–17
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 16 · did not cover CIN −3.521–45
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 15 · did not cover PIT −315–28
- W@ New York Jets2025 Week 14 · covered MIA −2.534–10
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 13 · did not cover MIA −5.521–17
- Wv Washington Commanders2025 Week 11 · covered MIA −2.516–13 (OT)