Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · State Farm Stadium
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Detroit Lions won 45–21.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Detroit Lions 45–21 Arizona Cardinals
Closing line DET −5.5, total 55.5 (went over). Detroit Lions covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Arizona Cardinals a 42.4% chance of winning and Detroit Lions 57.6%, with a predicted margin of DET by 2.1. The betting market had it DET 69%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals win | 42.4% | 30.9% |
| Detroit Lions win | 57.6% | 69.1% |
| Margin | DET by 2.1 | DET −5.5 |
| Total points | – | 55.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Detroit Lions by 15+ | 16% |
|---|---|
| Detroit Lions by 8–14 | 13% |
| Detroit Lions by 4–7 | 14% |
| Detroit Lions by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 1–3 | 12% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 4–7 | 12% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 8–14 | 10% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 15+ | 9% |
Most likely exact margins: DET by 3 (8.5%), ARI by 3 (7.9%) and DET by 7 (5.3%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Detroit Lions were 38.1% to cover the line (DET −5.5): to win by more than 5.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Cardinals | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 21.8 | 29.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3 | 31.8 |
| Points difference | -30 | -8 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 0-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 8 wins each with 1 tie in 17 meetings since 2002. Detroit Lions have won the last 3.
| P | Cardinals | T | Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| At Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
- Biggest Arizona Cardinals win
- Detroit Lions 10–38 Arizona Cardinals (2012 Week 15)
- Biggest Detroit Lions win
- Arizona Cardinals 12–30 Detroit Lions (2021 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.7
- Arizona Cardinals against the spread (W-L-P)
- 8-9
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Detroit Lions 20–13 Arizona Cardinals2024 Week 3 · line DET −3 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 12–30 Detroit Lions2021 Week 15 · line ARI −13 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 26–23 Arizona Cardinals2020 Week 3 · line ARI −4.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Detroit Lions 27–27 Arizona Cardinals (OT)2019 Week 1 · line DET −2.5 (Cardinals covered)
- Detroit Lions 17–3 Arizona Cardinals2018 Week 14 · line DET −2.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 23–35 Detroit Lions2017 Week 1 · line ARI −2.5 (Cardinals did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 42–17 Detroit Lions2015 Week 5 · line ARI −4.5 (Cardinals covered)
- Detroit Lions 6–14 Arizona Cardinals2014 Week 11 · line DET −1 (Cardinals covered)
- Detroit Lions 21–25 Arizona Cardinals2013 Week 2 · line DET −1 (Cardinals covered)
- Detroit Lions 10–38 Arizona Cardinals2012 Week 15 · line DET −5.5 (Cardinals covered)
Recent games
Arizona Cardinals
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 4 · did not cover ARI −2.524–36
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 3 · covered SF −7.530–36
- Lv Seattle SeahawksWeek 2 · did not cover SEA −3.57–31
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 1 · covered LAC −8.526–14
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · did not cover LA −14.520–37
- L@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 17 · did not cover CIN −714–37
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 16 · did not cover ATL −2.519–26
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 15 · did not cover HOU −10.520–40
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 14 · did not cover LA −9.517–45
- L@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 13 · covered TB −4.517–20
Recent games
Detroit Lions
- L@ Carolina PanthersWeek 4 · did not cover DET −4.526–32
- Wv New York JetsWeek 3 · push DET −731–24
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 2 · did not cover BUF −5.531–41
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 · did not cover DET −731–30 (OT)
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 18 · covered CHI −3.519–16
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 17 · did not cover DET −710–23
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DET −7.524–29
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 15 · did not cover LA −5.534–41
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 14 · covered DET −3.544–30
- Lv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 13 · did not cover DET −2.524–31