Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · U.S. Bank Stadium
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Tue 10 Nov, 01:15 UK time. The model makes Minnesota Vikings 51% favourites. Line: BUF −3.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Prediction
The model gives Minnesota Vikings a 51.3% chance of winning and Buffalo Bills 48.7%, with a predicted margin of MIN by 0.4. The betting market has it BUF 62%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings win | 51.3% | 38.4% |
| Buffalo Bills win | 48.7% | 61.6% |
| Margin | MIN by 0.4 | BUF −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 45.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Buffalo Bills by 15+ | 12% |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills by 8–14 | 12% |
| Buffalo Bills by 4–7 | 13% |
| Buffalo Bills by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 1–3 | 13% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 4–7 | 13% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 8–14 | 12% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 15+ | 13% |
Most likely exact margins: MIN by 3 (8.3%), BUF by 3 (8.2%) and MIN by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Buffalo Bills are 36.1% to cover the line (BUF −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Vikings | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 33.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.3 | 25.9 |
| Points difference | +47 | +52 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-3 | 5-2 |
Head-to-head record
Buffalo Bills lead 4–2 in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Vikings | T | Bills | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| At Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Minnesota Vikings win
- Buffalo Bills 14–38 Minnesota Vikings (2010 Week 13)
- Biggest Buffalo Bills win
- Buffalo Bills 27–6 Minnesota Vikings (2018 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 49.0
- Minnesota Vikings against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Minnesota Vikings 33–30 Buffalo Bills (OT)2022 Week 10 · line BUF −6.5 (Vikings covered)
- Buffalo Bills 27–6 Minnesota Vikings2018 Week 3 · line MIN −16.5 (Vikings did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 16–17 Buffalo Bills2014 Week 7 · line BUF −7 (Vikings covered)
- Buffalo Bills 14–38 Minnesota Vikings2010 Week 13 · line MIN −5 (Vikings covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 12–17 Buffalo Bills2006 Week 4 · line BUF −1 (Vikings did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 45–39 Minnesota Vikings (OT)2002 Week 2 · line MIN −3.5 (Vikings did not cover)
Recent games
Minnesota Vikings
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 8 · did not cover DET −315–19
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 7 · did not cover MIN −6.516–10
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 5 · covered MIN −2.523–13
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 4 · did not cover MIN −1015–10
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 3 · covered MIN −1.523–16
- W@ Chicago BearsWeek 2 · covered CHI −4.59–3
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 1 · covered MIN −1.539–22
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 18 · covered MIN −12.516–3
- Wv Detroit Lions2025 Week 17 · covered DET −723–10
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 16 · covered MIN −2.516–13
Recent games
Buffalo Bills
- Wv Baltimore RavensWeek 8 · covered BUF −336–10
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 6 · did not cover BUF −5.533–30
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 5 · covered LA −3.537–34 (OT)
- Lv New England PatriotsWeek 4 · did not cover BUF −726–29
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 3 · covered BUF −724–16
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 2 · covered BUF −5.541–31
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 1 · covered BUF −1.536–31
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Divisional round · did not cover DEN −1.530–33 (OT)
- W@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Wild card round · covered JAX −1.527–24
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 18 · covered BUF −12.535–8