Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Caesars Superdome
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Minnesota Vikings won 23–13.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Minnesota Vikings 23–13 New Orleans Saints
Closing line MIN −2.5, total 41.5 (stayed under). Minnesota Vikings covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New Orleans Saints a 32.0% chance of winning and Minnesota Vikings 68.0%, with a predicted margin of MIN by 5.2. The betting market had it MIN 54%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints win | 32.0% | 45.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings win | 68.0% | 54.3% |
| Margin | MIN by 5.2 | MIN −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Minnesota Vikings by 15+ | 22% |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings by 8–14 | 15% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 4–7 | 14% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New Orleans Saints by 1–3 | 11% |
| New Orleans Saints by 4–7 | 10% |
| New Orleans Saints by 8–14 | 8% |
| New Orleans Saints by 15+ | 6% |
Most likely exact margins: MIN by 3 (8.4%), NO by 3 (7.0%) and MIN by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Minnesota Vikings were 60.3% to cover the line (MIN −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Saints | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Points per game | 26.3 | 21.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.0 | 12.8 |
| Points difference | -23 | +35 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Minnesota Vikings lead 9–6 in 15 meetings since 2002. Minnesota Vikings have won the last 2.
| P | Saints | T | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 15 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| At New Orleans Saints | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
- Biggest New Orleans Saints win
- New Orleans Saints 42–20 Minnesota Vikings (2011 Week 15)
- Biggest Minnesota Vikings win
- New Orleans Saints 16–33 Minnesota Vikings (2005 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.8
- New Orleans Saints against the spread (W-L-P)
- 7-8
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New Orleans Saints 19–27 Minnesota Vikings2023 Week 10 · line NO −3 (Saints did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 28–25 New Orleans Saints2022 Week 4 · line MIN −4 (Saints covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 33–52 New Orleans Saints2020 Week 16 · line NO −6.5 (Saints covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 26–20 New Orleans Saints (OT)2019 Wild card round · line NO −7.5 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 30–20 Minnesota Vikings2018 Week 8 · line NO −2.5 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 24–29 Minnesota Vikings2017 Divisional round · line MIN −5.5 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 19–29 Minnesota Vikings2017 Week 1 · line MIN −3 (Saints did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 9–20 New Orleans Saints2014 Week 3 · line NO −10 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 42–20 Minnesota Vikings2011 Week 15 · line NO −7 (Saints covered)
- Minnesota Vikings 9–14 New Orleans Saints2010 Week 1 · line NO −4.5 (Saints covered)
Recent games
New Orleans Saints
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 4 · did not cover NO −1.524–45
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 3 · did not cover NO −3.527–35
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 2 · covered BAL −8.524–17
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 1 · covered DET −730–31 (OT)
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · covered ATL −4.517–19
- W@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 17 · covered NO −1.534–26
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 16 · covered NO −6.529–6
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 15 · covered CAR −2.520–17
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 14 · covered TB −7.524–20
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 13 · covered MIA −5.517–21
Recent games
Minnesota Vikings
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 4 · did not cover MIN −1015–10
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 3 · covered MIN −1.523–16
- W@ Chicago BearsWeek 2 · covered CHI −4.59–3
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 1 · covered MIN −1.539–22
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 18 · covered MIN −12.516–3
- Wv Detroit Lions2025 Week 17 · covered DET −723–10
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 16 · covered MIN −2.516–13
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 15 · covered DAL −5.534–26
- Wv Washington Commanders2025 Week 14 · covered WAS −1.531–0
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 13 · did not cover SEA −12.50–26