Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · SoFi Stadium
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Buffalo Bills won 37–34 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Buffalo Bills 37–34 Los Angeles Rams (OT)
Closing line LA −3.5, total 55.5 (went over). Buffalo Bills covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Los Angeles Rams a 51.9% chance of winning and Buffalo Bills 48.1%, with a predicted margin of LA by 0.5. The betting market had it LA 61%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams win | 51.9% | 60.9% |
| Buffalo Bills win | 48.1% | 39.1% |
| Margin | LA by 0.5 | LA −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 55.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Buffalo Bills by 15+ | 11% |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills by 8–14 | 11% |
| Buffalo Bills by 4–7 | 13% |
| Buffalo Bills by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 1–3 | 13% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 4–7 | 13% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 8–14 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 15+ | 13% |
Most likely exact margins: LA by 3 (8.4%), BUF by 3 (8.2%) and LA by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Los Angeles Rams were 38.5% to cover the line (LA −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Rams | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8 | 26.8 |
| Points difference | +2 | +20 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Buffalo Bills lead 5–2 in 7 meetings since 2004.
| P | Rams | T | Bills | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| At Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Los Angeles Rams win
- St Louis Rams 15–12 Buffalo Bills (2012 Week 14)
- Biggest Buffalo Bills win
- Buffalo Bills 31–10 Los Angeles Rams (2022 Week 1)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.7
- Los Angeles Rams against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-5
Head-to-head (last 7)
- Buffalo Bills 42–44 Los Angeles Rams2024 Week 14 · line BUF −3.5 (Rams covered)
- Buffalo Bills 31–10 Los Angeles Rams2022 Week 1 · line BUF −1 (Rams did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 32–35 Buffalo Bills2020 Week 3 · line BUF −1.5 (Rams did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 30–19 Los Angeles Rams2016 Week 5 · line BUF −2.5 (Rams did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 15–12 Buffalo Bills2012 Week 14 · line BUF −3.5 (Rams covered)
- Buffalo Bills 31–14 St Louis Rams2008 Week 4 · line BUF −8.5 (Rams did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 17–37 Buffalo Bills2004 Week 11 · line BUF −2 (Rams did not cover)
Recent games
Los Angeles Rams
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 4 · covered LA −3.524–20
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 3 · did not cover DEN −1.526–30
- Wv New York GiantsWeek 2 · covered LA −6.528–6
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 · did not cover LA −3.57–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Conference championships · did not cover SEA −2.527–31
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Divisional round · did not cover LA −3.520–17 (OT)
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Wild card round · did not cover LA −1034–31
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 18 · covered LA −14.537–20
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 17 · did not cover LA −7.524–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 16 · covered SEA −1.537–38 (OT)
Recent games
Buffalo Bills
- Lv New England PatriotsWeek 4 · did not cover BUF −726–29
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 3 · covered BUF −724–16
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 2 · covered BUF −5.541–31
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 1 · covered BUF −1.536–31
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Divisional round · did not cover DEN −1.530–33 (OT)
- W@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Wild card round · covered JAX −1.527–24
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 18 · covered BUF −12.535–8
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 17 · did not cover BUF −312–13
- W@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 16 · did not cover BUF −10.523–20
- W@ New England Patriots2025 Week 15 · covered BUF −2.535–31