Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · U.S. Bank Stadium
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Minnesota Vikings won 16–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Indianapolis Colts 10–16 Minnesota Vikings
Closing line MIN −6.5, total 41.5 (stayed under). Indianapolis Colts covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Minnesota Vikings a 79.0% chance of winning and Indianapolis Colts 21.0%, with a predicted margin of MIN by 9.2. The betting market had it MIN 73%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings win | 79.0% | 73.4% |
| Indianapolis Colts win | 21.0% | 26.6% |
| Margin | MIN by 9.2 | MIN −6.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Indianapolis Colts by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts by 8–14 | 5% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 4–7 | 8% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 1–3 | 12% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 4–7 | 14% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 8–14 | 17% |
| Minnesota Vikings by 15+ | 32% |
Most likely exact margins: MIN by 3 (7.7%), MIN by 7 (5.7%) and IND by 3 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Minnesota Vikings were 54.8% to cover the line (MIN −6.5): to win by more than 6.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Vikings | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 2-4 |
| Points per game | 21.8 | 24.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.8 | 27.3 |
| Points difference | +45 | -20 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-1 | 3-3 |
Head-to-head record
Indianapolis Colts lead 5–2 in 7 meetings since 2004. Minnesota Vikings have won the last 2.
| P | Vikings | T | Colts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| At Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Minnesota Vikings win
- Indianapolis Colts 13–21 Minnesota Vikings (2024 Week 9)
- Biggest Indianapolis Colts win
- Indianapolis Colts 34–6 Minnesota Vikings (2016 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.1
- Minnesota Vikings against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-5
Head-to-head (last 7)
- Indianapolis Colts 13–21 Minnesota Vikings2024 Week 9 · line MIN −6.5 (Vikings covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 36–39 Minnesota Vikings (OT)2022 Week 15 · line MIN −3.5 (Vikings did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 11–28 Indianapolis Colts2020 Week 2 · line IND −3.5 (Vikings did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 34–6 Minnesota Vikings2016 Week 15 · line MIN −5 (Vikings did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 20–23 Indianapolis Colts2012 Week 2 · line MIN −3 (Vikings did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 18–15 Minnesota Vikings2008 Week 2 · line IND −1 (Vikings did not cover)
- Minnesota Vikings 28–31 Indianapolis Colts2004 Week 9 · line IND −7 (Vikings covered)
Recent games
Minnesota Vikings
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 5 · covered MIN −2.523–13
- Wv Miami DolphinsWeek 4 · did not cover MIN −1015–10
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 3 · covered MIN −1.523–16
- W@ Chicago BearsWeek 2 · covered CHI −4.59–3
- Wv Green Bay PackersWeek 1 · covered MIN −1.539–22
- Wv Green Bay Packers2025 Week 18 · covered MIN −12.516–3
- Wv Detroit Lions2025 Week 17 · covered DET −723–10
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 16 · covered MIN −2.516–13
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 15 · covered DAL −5.534–26
- Wv Washington Commanders2025 Week 14 · covered WAS −1.531–0
Recent games
Indianapolis Colts
- Lv Tennessee TitansWeek 6 · did not cover IND −6.520–26
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 5 · did not cover PIT −322–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 4 · covered IND −4.530–13
- Wv Houston TexansWeek 3 · covered HOU −1.519–17
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 2 · covered KC −630–33 (OT)
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 1 · did not cover BAL −323–41
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 18 · covered HOU −9.530–38
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 17 · did not cover JAX −3.517–23
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 16 · did not cover SF −4.527–48
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 15 · covered SEA −13.516–18