Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Highmark Stadium
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Buffalo Bills won 36–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Baltimore Ravens 10–36 Buffalo Bills
Closing line BUF −3, total 54.5 (stayed under). Buffalo Bills covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Buffalo Bills a 71.5% chance of winning and Baltimore Ravens 28.5%, with a predicted margin of BUF by 6.4. The betting market had it BUF 60%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills win | 71.5% | 60.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens win | 28.5% | 39.6% |
| Margin | BUF by 6.4 | BUF −3 |
| Total points | – | 54.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Baltimore Ravens by 15+ | 5% |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens by 8–14 | 7% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 4–7 | 9% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 1–3 | 10% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Buffalo Bills by 1–3 | 13% |
| Buffalo Bills by 4–7 | 14% |
| Buffalo Bills by 8–14 | 16% |
| Buffalo Bills by 15+ | 25% |
Most likely exact margins: BUF by 3 (8.3%), BAL by 3 (6.7%) and BUF by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Buffalo Bills were 55.2% to cover the line (BUF −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Bills | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 4-3 |
| Points per game | 32.8 | 24.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.5 | 23.9 |
| Points difference | +26 | +2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-2 | 2-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
Baltimore Ravens lead 7–6 in 13 meetings since 2004. Buffalo Bills have won the last 2.
| P | Bills | T | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| At Buffalo Bills | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Buffalo Bills win
- Baltimore Ravens 3–17 Buffalo Bills (2020 Divisional round)
- Biggest Baltimore Ravens win
- Buffalo Bills 3–47 Baltimore Ravens (2018 Week 1)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.4
- Buffalo Bills against the spread (W-L-P)
- 6-6-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Baltimore Ravens 40–41 Buffalo Bills2025 Week 1 · line BAL −1.5 (Bills covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 25–27 Buffalo Bills2024 Divisional round · line BAL −1.5 (Bills covered)
- Buffalo Bills 10–35 Baltimore Ravens2024 Week 4 · line BAL −2.5 (Bills did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 23–20 Baltimore Ravens2022 Week 4 · line BUF −3 (Bills push)
- Baltimore Ravens 3–17 Buffalo Bills2020 Divisional round · line BUF −2.5 (Bills covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 24–17 Buffalo Bills2019 Week 14 · line BAL −6.5 (Bills did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 3–47 Baltimore Ravens2018 Week 1 · line BAL −7.5 (Bills did not cover)
- Buffalo Bills 7–13 Baltimore Ravens2016 Week 1 · line BAL −3 (Bills did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 20–23 Buffalo Bills2013 Week 4 · line BAL −4 (Bills covered)
- Buffalo Bills 34–37 Baltimore Ravens (OT)2010 Week 7 · line BAL −12 (Bills covered)
Recent games
Buffalo Bills
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 6 · did not cover BUF −5.533–30
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 5 · covered LA −3.537–34 (OT)
- Lv New England PatriotsWeek 4 · did not cover BUF −726–29
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 3 · covered BUF −724–16
- Wv Detroit LionsWeek 2 · covered BUF −5.541–31
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 1 · covered BUF −1.536–31
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Divisional round · did not cover DEN −1.530–33 (OT)
- W@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Wild card round · covered JAX −1.527–24
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 18 · covered BUF −12.535–8
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 17 · did not cover BUF −312–13
Recent games
Baltimore Ravens
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 7 · did not cover CIN −313–35
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 6 · did not cover BAL −310–13
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 5 · covered ATL −3.530–23 (OT)
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 4 · did not cover BAL −11.524–18
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 3 · push BAL −334–31
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 · did not cover BAL −8.517–24
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 1 · covered BAL −341–23
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 18 · did not cover BAL −4.524–26
- W@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 17 · covered GB −2.541–24
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 16 · did not cover BAL −3.524–28