Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Lumen Field · division game
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 21:25 UK time. The model makes Seattle Seahawks 79% favourites. Line: SEA −12.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Seattle Seahawks a 79.4% chance of winning and Arizona Cardinals 20.6%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 9.4. The betting market has it SEA 85%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks win | 79.4% | 85.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals win | 20.6% | 14.7% |
| Margin | SEA by 9.4 | SEA −12.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Arizona Cardinals by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals by 8–14 | 5% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 4–7 | 8% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 11% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 17% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 33% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (7.7%), SEA by 7 (5.7%) and ARI by 3 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks are 39.1% to cover the line (SEA −12.5): to win by more than 12.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Seahawks | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Points per game | 23.1 | 21.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.9 | 29.8 |
| Points difference | +26 | -63 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-4-2 | 4-4 |
Head-to-head record
Seattle Seahawks lead 31–17 with 1 tie in 49 meetings since 2002. Seattle Seahawks have won the last 10.
| P | Seahawks | T | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 31 | 1 | 17 |
| At Seattle Seahawks | 24 | 15 | 0 | 9 |
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- Arizona Cardinals 0–58 Seattle Seahawks (2012 Week 14)
- Biggest Arizona Cardinals win
- Arizona Cardinals 27–3 Seattle Seahawks (2009 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.4
- Seattle Seahawks against the spread (W-L-P)
- 27-21-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Seattle Seahawks 31–7 Arizona Cardinals2026 Week 2 · line SEA −3.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 22–44 Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 10 · line SEA −7 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 23–20 Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 4 · line SEA −1.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 30–18 Arizona Cardinals2024 Week 14 · line ARI −3 (Seahawks covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 6–16 Seattle Seahawks2024 Week 12 · line ARI −1 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 21–20 Arizona Cardinals2023 Week 18 · line SEA −2.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 10–20 Seattle Seahawks2023 Week 7 · line SEA −9.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 31–21 Arizona Cardinals2022 Week 9 · line ARI −1.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 9–19 Seattle Seahawks2022 Week 6 · line ARI −2.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 38–30 Arizona Cardinals2021 Week 18 · line ARI −5.5 (Seahawks covered)
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 8 · did not cover SEA −317–34
- Wv Kansas City ChiefsWeek 7 · covered SEA −320–3
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 6 · did not cover SEA −2.514–17 (OT)
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 5 · did not cover SEA −329–32
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 4 · push SEA −730–23
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
Recent games
Arizona Cardinals
- W@ Dallas CowboysWeek 8 · covered DAL −733–30 (OT)
- Lv Denver BroncosWeek 7 · did not cover DEN −4.516–30
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 6 · covered LA −12.518–16
- Lv Detroit LionsWeek 5 · did not cover DET −5.521–45
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 4 · did not cover ARI −2.524–36
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 3 · covered SF −7.530–36
- Lv Seattle SeahawksWeek 2 · did not cover SEA −3.57–31
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 1 · covered LAC −8.526–14
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · did not cover LA −14.520–37
- L@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 17 · did not cover CIN −714–37