Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Lumen Field
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Seattle Seahawks won 20–3.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Kansas City Chiefs 3–20 Seattle Seahawks
Closing line SEA −3, total 43.5 (stayed under). Seattle Seahawks covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Seattle Seahawks a 61.9% chance of winning and Kansas City Chiefs 38.1%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 3.4. The betting market had it SEA 56%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks win | 61.9% | 56.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs win | 38.1% | 43.6% |
| Margin | SEA by 3.4 | SEA −3 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Kansas City Chiefs by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs by 8–14 | 9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 4–7 | 11% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 13% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 18% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (8.5%), KC by 3 (7.6%) and SEA by 7 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks were 46.5% to cover the line (SEA −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Seahawks | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 5-0 |
| Points per game | 24.7 | 28.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 16.6 |
| Points difference | +26 | +57 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-3-2 | 3-2 |
Head-to-head record
Kansas City Chiefs lead 4–2 in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Seahawks | T | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| At Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- Kansas City Chiefs 31–38 Seattle Seahawks (2018 Week 16)
- Biggest Kansas City Chiefs win
- Kansas City Chiefs 42–24 Seattle Seahawks (2010 Week 12)
- Average points per meeting
- 57.8
- Seattle Seahawks against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-4
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Seattle Seahawks 10–24 Kansas City Chiefs2022 Week 16 · line KC −10.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 31–38 Seattle Seahawks2018 Week 16 · line KC −1 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 20–24 Kansas City Chiefs2014 Week 11 · line SEA −1 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 42–24 Seattle Seahawks2010 Week 12 · line KC −1 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 28–35 Kansas City Chiefs2006 Week 8 · line KC −4 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 32–39 Seattle Seahawks2002 Week 12 · line KC −3.5 (Seahawks covered)
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 6 · did not cover SEA −2.514–17 (OT)
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 5 · did not cover SEA −329–32
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 4 · push SEA −730–23
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
- Wv San Francisco 49ers2025 Divisional round · covered SEA −6.541–6
- W@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 18 · covered SEA −2.513–3
Recent games
Kansas City Chiefs
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 6 · covered KC −7.522–6
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 4 · did not cover KC −4.530–27
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 3 · covered KC −1024–10
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 2 · did not cover KC −633–30 (OT)
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 1 · covered KC −2.531–10
- L@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · did not cover KC −3.512–14
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 17 · covered DEN −13.513–20
- L@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 16 · did not cover KC −3.59–26
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 15 · did not cover KC −5.513–16
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 14 · did not cover KC −4.510–20