Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · SoFi Stadium · division game
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Arizona Cardinals won 18–16.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Arizona Cardinals 18–16 Los Angeles Rams
Closing line LA −12.5, total 51.5 (stayed under). Arizona Cardinals covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Los Angeles Rams a 77.2% chance of winning and Arizona Cardinals 22.8%, with a predicted margin of LA by 8.5. The betting market had it LA 85%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams win | 77.2% | 85.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals win | 22.8% | 14.7% |
| Margin | LA by 8.5 | LA −12.5 |
| Total points | – | 51.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Arizona Cardinals by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals by 8–14 | 6% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 4–7 | 8% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 1–3 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 4–7 | 14% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 8–14 | 17% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 15+ | 30% |
Most likely exact margins: LA by 3 (7.9%), ARI by 3 (5.9%) and LA by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Los Angeles Rams were 36.5% to cover the line (LA −12.5): to win by more than 12.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Rams | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Points per game | 23.8 | 21.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 32.4 |
| Points difference | -1 | -54 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-3 | 2-3 |
Head-to-head record
Los Angeles Rams lead 29–20 in 49 meetings since 2002. Los Angeles Rams have won the last 3.
| P | Rams | T | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 29 | 0 | 20 |
| At Los Angeles Rams | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
- Biggest Los Angeles Rams win
- Arizona Cardinals 0–34 Los Angeles Rams (2018 Week 2)
- Biggest Arizona Cardinals win
- Arizona Cardinals 44–6 Los Angeles Rams (2016 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.0
- Los Angeles Rams against the spread (W-L-P)
- 25-23-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Arizona Cardinals 20–37 Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · line LA −14.5 (Rams covered)
- Los Angeles Rams 45–17 Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 14 · line LA −9.5 (Rams covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 9–13 Los Angeles Rams2024 Week 17 · line LA −6.5 (Rams did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 10–41 Arizona Cardinals2024 Week 2 · line LA −1 (Rams did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 37–14 Arizona Cardinals2023 Week 12 · line LA −3 (Rams covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 9–26 Los Angeles Rams2023 Week 6 · line LA −7 (Rams covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 27–17 Los Angeles Rams2022 Week 10 · line LA −3.5 (Rams did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 20–12 Arizona Cardinals2022 Week 3 · line LA −3.5 (Rams covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 11–34 Los Angeles Rams2021 Wild card round · line LA −4 (Rams covered)
- Los Angeles Rams 30–23 Arizona Cardinals2021 Week 14 · line ARI −3 (Rams covered)
Recent games
Los Angeles Rams
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 5 · did not cover LA −3.534–37 (OT)
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 4 · covered LA −3.524–20
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 3 · did not cover DEN −1.526–30
- Wv New York GiantsWeek 2 · covered LA −6.528–6
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 · did not cover LA −3.57–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Conference championships · did not cover SEA −2.527–31
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Divisional round · did not cover LA −3.520–17 (OT)
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Wild card round · did not cover LA −1034–31
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 18 · covered LA −14.537–20
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 17 · did not cover LA −7.524–27
Recent games
Arizona Cardinals
- Lv Detroit LionsWeek 5 · did not cover DET −5.521–45
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 4 · did not cover ARI −2.524–36
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 3 · covered SF −7.530–36
- Lv Seattle SeahawksWeek 2 · did not cover SEA −3.57–31
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 1 · covered LAC −8.526–14
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · did not cover LA −14.520–37
- L@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 17 · did not cover CIN −714–37
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 16 · did not cover ATL −2.519–26
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 15 · did not cover HOU −10.520–40
- Lv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 14 · did not cover LA −9.517–45