Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · AT&T Stadium
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Arizona Cardinals won 33–30 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Arizona Cardinals 33–30 Dallas Cowboys (OT)
Closing line DAL −7, total 54.5 (went over). Arizona Cardinals covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Dallas Cowboys a 67.8% chance of winning and Arizona Cardinals 32.3%, with a predicted margin of DAL by 5.2. The betting market had it DAL 73%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys win | 67.8% | 73.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals win | 32.3% | 26.6% |
| Margin | DAL by 5.2 | DAL −7 |
| Total points | – | 54.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Arizona Cardinals by 15+ | 6% |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals by 8–14 | 8% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 4–7 | 10% |
| Arizona Cardinals by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 1–3 | 13% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 4–7 | 14% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 8–14 | 15% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 15+ | 22% |
Most likely exact margins: DAL by 3 (8.4%), ARI by 3 (7.1%) and DAL by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Dallas Cowboys were 37.3% to cover the line (DAL −7): to win by more than 7.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Cowboys | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 29.7 |
| Points difference | +9 | -66 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3-1 | 3-4 |
Head-to-head record
Arizona Cardinals lead 9–4 in 13 meetings since 2002. Arizona Cardinals have won the last 4.
| P | Cowboys | T | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| At Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- Biggest Dallas Cowboys win
- Arizona Cardinals 13–34 Dallas Cowboys (2005 Week 8)
- Biggest Arizona Cardinals win
- Arizona Cardinals 38–10 Dallas Cowboys (2020 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.7
- Dallas Cowboys against the spread (W-L-P)
- 5-8
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Arizona Cardinals 27–17 Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 9 · line DAL −3.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 16–28 Arizona Cardinals2023 Week 3 · line DAL −11.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 25–22 Dallas Cowboys2021 Week 17 · line DAL −6.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Arizona Cardinals 38–10 Dallas Cowboys2020 Week 6 · line DAL −1 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 28–17 Arizona Cardinals2017 Week 3 · line DAL −3 (Cowboys covered)
- Arizona Cardinals 28–17 Dallas Cowboys2014 Week 9 · line DAL −1.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 13–19 Arizona Cardinals (OT)2011 Week 13 · line DAL −4 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 26–27 Arizona Cardinals2010 Week 16 · line DAL −7 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 24–30 Arizona Cardinals (OT)2008 Week 6 · line DAL −4.5 (Cowboys did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 27–10 Arizona Cardinals2006 Week 10 · line DAL −6.5 (Cowboys covered)
Recent games
Dallas Cowboys
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 7 · covered DAL −4.538–21
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 6 · did not cover DAL −1.513–23
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 5 · did not cover DAL −9.516–24
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 4 · covered HOU −334–30
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 3 · push BAL −331–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 2 · covered DAL −3.537–20
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 1 · did not cover DAL −320–28
- L@ New York Giants2025 Week 18 · did not cover DAL −317–34
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 17 · did not cover DAL −8.530–23
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DAL −1.517–34
Recent games
Arizona Cardinals
- Lv Denver BroncosWeek 7 · did not cover DEN −4.516–30
- W@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 6 · covered LA −12.518–16
- Lv Detroit LionsWeek 5 · did not cover DET −5.521–45
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 4 · did not cover ARI −2.524–36
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 3 · covered SF −7.530–36
- Lv Seattle SeahawksWeek 2 · did not cover SEA −3.57–31
- W@ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 1 · covered LAC −8.526–14
- L@ Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 18 · did not cover LA −14.520–37
- L@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 17 · did not cover CIN −714–37
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 16 · did not cover ATL −2.519–26