Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · Lumen Field
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 4 of the 2026 season: Seattle Seahawks won 30–23.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Los Angeles Chargers 23–30 Seattle Seahawks
Closing line SEA −7, total 42.5 (went over). The spread was a push.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Seattle Seahawks a 80.8% chance of winning and Los Angeles Chargers 19.3%, with a predicted margin of SEA by 10.0. The betting market had it SEA 75%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks win | 80.8% | 75.1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers win | 19.3% | 24.9% |
| Margin | SEA by 10.0 | SEA −7 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Los Angeles Chargers by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers by 8–14 | 5% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 4–7 | 7% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 1–3 | 8% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 1–3 | 11% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 4–7 | 14% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 8–14 | 17% |
| Seattle Seahawks by 15+ | 34% |
Most likely exact margins: SEA by 3 (7.5%), SEA by 7 (5.6%) and LAC by 3 (5.3%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Seattle Seahawks were 51.5% to cover the line (SEA −7): to win by more than 7.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Seahawks | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 14.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7 | 25.3 |
| Points difference | +25 | -32 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-1-1 | 0-3 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Seahawks | T | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Seattle Seahawks win
- Seattle Seahawks 37–23 Los Angeles Chargers (2022 Week 7)
- Biggest Los Angeles Chargers win
- Seattle Seahawks 21–30 San Diego Chargers (2014 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 49.3
- Seattle Seahawks against the spread (W-L-P)
- 4-2
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Seattle Seahawks 37–23 Los Angeles Chargers2022 Week 7 · line LAC −5.5 (Seahawks covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 25–17 Seattle Seahawks2018 Week 9 · line SEA −1 (Seahawks did not cover)
- Seattle Seahawks 21–30 San Diego Chargers2014 Week 2 · line SEA −4.5 (Seahawks did not cover)
- San Diego Chargers 20–27 Seattle Seahawks2010 Week 3 · line LAC −3.5 (Seahawks covered)
- San Diego Chargers 20–17 Seattle Seahawks2006 Week 16 · line LAC −4 (Seahawks covered)
- Seattle Seahawks 31–28 San Diego Chargers (OT)2002 Week 17 · line LAC −3 (Seahawks covered)
Recent games
Seattle Seahawks
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 3 · did not cover SEA −8.531–33
- W@ Arizona CardinalsWeek 2 · covered SEA −3.531–7
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 1 · push SEA −313–10
- Wv New England Patriots2025 Super Bowl · covered SEA −4.529–13
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Conference championships · covered SEA −2.531–27
- Wv San Francisco 49ers2025 Divisional round · covered SEA −6.541–6
- W@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 18 · covered SEA −2.513–3
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Week 17 · covered SEA −6.527–10
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 16 · did not cover SEA −1.538–37 (OT)
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 15 · did not cover SEA −13.518–16
Recent games
Los Angeles Chargers
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 3 · did not cover BUF −716–24
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 · did not cover LAC −6.514–26
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 · did not cover LAC −8.514–26
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Wild card round · did not cover NE −3.53–16
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · did not cover DEN −14.53–19
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 17 · did not cover LAC −1.516–20
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 16 · covered DAL −1.534–17
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 15 · covered KC −5.516–13
- Wv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 14 · covered PHI −1.522–19 (OT)
- Wv Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 13 · covered LAC −1031–14